# Covid-19 Series

Data: 11-01-2025 21:47:06

## Lista de Vídeos

1. [Consumption in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from UK transaction data  | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iujPWJ6dguE)
2. [A framework for COVID-19 testing | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSycS0Mz2h4)
3. [COVID-19 and the opportunity for change | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf3erxMRtfg)
4. [Smarter testing for coronavirus | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvQqw17cooM)
5. [The impact of Covid-19 in capital flows and emerging markets | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw9tkdd3r6Q)
6. [The impact of Covid-19 in Russia and Eastern Europe | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZyfum2T1mA)
7. [Lessons from Ebola Crisis to improve outcomes during COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9o5NUy23wU)
8. [Mobile payments impact on underserved communities in times of crisis | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1AME0ZYjfw)
9. [The economic implications of COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpL5t6CQv5U)
10. [Good leadership when growth slows | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1LGb2X5YE8)
11. [The impact of Covid-19 in South Africa | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ng68Kghfug)
12. [Hunger could kill more people than COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sSd8EHUeYvY)
13. [Role of business in society | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzsMazkMLWI)
14. [Wheeler Institute COVID-19 series | London Business School](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXKb-CZMmcI)
15. [Coronavirus will shape political institutions, businesses and leaders | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzSacwPzdas)
16. [Consumer behaviour insights from China in times of COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPfmu3FKlsM)
17. [How information sharing can lead to behavioural change in the prevention of COVID-19 | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlyP3qpgdkw)
18. [Could fear caused by COVID-19 affect voting behaviour? | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YSQ8gkwKWM)
19. [Funding a COVID-19 vaccine, basic economy for extraordinary times | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjpoNYR5W38)
20. [The impact of COVID-19 in West Africa | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE6pZxd9PU)
21. [What is the impact of COVID-19 on women’s participation in the workforce? | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o8N3q7R25M)
22. [Moving from CSR to responsible business | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bgpksg0B_g)
23. [UK household debt before and after the crisis | Wheeler Institute | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK9bHF4ZA_Y)
24. [Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PyoUv_7Bxg)
25. [Responding to COVID-19 in developing countries | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7IdAWpJYc4)
26. [Affordable healthcare in developing countries during COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLApt99kZ5o)

## Transcrições

### Consumption in the time of COVID-19: Evidence from UK transaction data  | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iujPWJ6dguE

Transcrição não disponível

---

### A framework for COVID-19 testing | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GSycS0Mz2h4

Transcrição não disponível

---

### COVID-19 and the opportunity for change | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qf3erxMRtfg

Transcrição não disponível

---

### Smarter testing for coronavirus | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvQqw17cooM

Idioma: en

[Music]
welcome to another edition of our series
on Kubik conversations this time we are
delighted to welcome our own professor
kamalinee around us who holds the
Deloitte chair in entrepreneurship and
innovation at London Business School and
is a professor of management and
operations at the school kamilly me and
her co-authors Lord ara Darcy of
Imperial College and dr. Sanjaya Jain of
Oxford University who was an economist
at Oxford University have have recently
published a paper on testing for Ovid
and papers just published in Nature
Medicine camelina it's an absolute
delight to have you here and thank you
for being willing to share your insight
really fascinating stuff Thank You
Rajesh delighted to be involved in this
so so so calculating your professor our
Deloitte chair in in innovation at
London Business School you're a
professor of operations management you
do a lot of work on healthcare
operations all around now testing tell
us a bit about the status quo around
testing and and what what you saw and
what your solution is what is the
challenge that we're facing or at least
as you see it in this context with
respect to testing okay the major
challenge is that there's a huge and
desperate need for testing to be done
and if you think about the population of
the world there's a lot of people out
there and this is a pandemic so it's all
over the world so we need a lot of tests
and the challenge is that there isn't
enough testing capacity available so
it's really a supply and demand problem
and you're a little bit of background
there's and I'm sure many of you already
know this that there are different types
of tests so the gold standard test is
this reverse transcription or is PCR
polymerase chain reaction yes and that
is a test which is done in a lab it
takes a few hours to be done you have to
send a sample to the lab etc there is
not much capacity yeah just I said
that's the one that involves swabs in
your nose and exactly exactly so they
take a swab then they have to send that
sample to a lab it takes a few hours in
the lab for it to be processed then the
the result needs to be given and that
tells you whether you currently have
your shedding the kovat and it is a very
accurate or in the scientific language
what is called a highly sensitive test
in the sense that if you have in it
there is a high likelihood that it is
going to tell you that you have it yeah
versus giving you what is called a false
negative well the test would say you
don't have it while you actually have it
so this is this is the gold standard but
then this test is extremely expensive as
you can see and on the other hand there
are other kinds of tests which are
available which are much cheaper and
they are what are called point-of-care
tests they can also be done much faster
and many of those tests are antibody
tests so what they are doing is they are
testing for the specific antibodies that
our bodies are generating in response to
being infected with the corona virus now
the problem with these many of these
tests and we know because we've seen in
England and also in the u.s. in fact
first the government got a hold and
paying large amounts of money got a hold
of huge numbers of these tests but then
and they were even supposed to be
distributed by Amazon etc but then a
whole has been put on them because they
are not accurate enough that's what is
being said so this is basically the
challenge that either you have this very
fancy and highly expensive and very
accurate
test but there's not enough of them or
you've got this other test which is much
cheap or much faster but you know if you
actually have the virus maybe only 70%
of the time it will give you the yes
that you have the virus and then there
would be the false negatives 30% and and
and you have some quotes from various
public health officials in the US and in
the UK so here's dr. deborah birx in the
u.s. US Co bid 19 coordinators Inc we're
very quality oriented we don't want
false positives to your point about
about accuracy and and similarly ever
quote from Chris witty in the UK if they
are not accurate we will not release any
of them and that's your point these may
be more accurate but they are more
expensive and they take off exactly yeah
yeah so then the question is should we
really waste all of these tests that are
available and then the other thing is
that this kind of test the antibody
tests you know Rajesh you've done lots
of work in pharma and you know what a
long lead time that can be right how
long is it to go from a molecule to a
drug they depend who you ask
it could be a molecule to a drug could
be in decades because here we had the
advantage this is a test rather than a
drug in there and therefore you can
imagine it'll be quicker and and the
genetic information was provided early
so presumably they could be quicker and
and your point is there is the
opportunity for low cost innovation
exactly so we've already got these Oh
quite rapidly developed tests which are
cheap and can be done very rapidly also
at the point-of-care they're kind of
like a pregnancy kit where you use it
and then you know after a few
that's maybe 15 minutes maybe a little
longer than that there will be a signal
in that little test kit which would be
an indicator for whether you have the
virus or not now supposing that any
particular test is is not particularly
accurate in the sense that is giving you
a sometimes maybe there are false
negatives like let's say there's even as
high as 30% false negatives but if you
think about it now supposing we could
get two tests of this kind and there are
labs all over the world that are making
these tests you have labs in China in
fact much of the produce from China was
sold to the UK and Turkey and other
countries but there are labs in Germany
and in the US all over that are making
these tests so if you have two different
tests which you can think of as kind of
independent because they're coming from
two different labs and they might even
be testing for different things so like
you said the corona virus is a pretty
simple virus but it does have you know
several parts to it like the spike
protein and the membrane etc and then
each of these generates antibodies and
there are different ways to test for
particular antibodies if you think of
two tests coming from two different
parts of the world which are using
slightly different processes they are
likely to be it's quite likely that the
results would be independent and
therefore and ifs if they're both quick
and cheap of guess you could imagine
giving the same patient first one test
and then a second test and now the
chances of two false negatives you would
just multiply the two probabilities and
it's going to fall dramatically yeah and
so therefore if you do three such tests
you could approach the level or two or
three however the underlying accuracy if
you do multiple tests as long as they
are independent
you can approach using this cheap and
quick test you can approach the accuracy
levels of the of the high-end tool
standard tests exactly about that's
exactly the point yeah and and therefore
now the you mentioned in the paper the
recommendation from the from the w-h-o
which is test retest oh wait you're the
original is test test test is that right
yeah and you're going to is dist retest
in Rita and and and and the whole point
here is to have slightly independent
that makes a lot of sense and like many
of these really clever ideas when you
state it upfront it seems like an almost
obvious thing but kudos to you guys to
two point there for pointing that out
now what does that imply in practical
terms who should be will a who should be
acting on the insight that that you
provide and be as a business school
professor is a role for businesses do
you do anything in this yeah that's a
really good question and you know we've
been thinking about it as well
definitely one entity that needs to be
involved as government's because
governments are calling the shots on
what can be allowed in terms of you know
what can the public be allowed to access
because we know already that there are
tests available they were going to be on
Amazon but then they've been held back
so governments need to see or be
convinced I think there's also if you
think of who's creating these tests they
are labs many of them are private
independent companies and the radius you
have also been a scholar of innovation
for many many years and you know you we
tend to think about what what should be
the goal for innovation well
and one goal that one could give all the
labs and the those sorts of films in the
world is to develop that best incredibly
accurate test but perhaps and that's
great you know if we can do that and at
some point there will be that with
perhaps in the shorter term a different
type of goal is to in fact develop many
tests and um figure out ways to make
sure that there are some independent
tests so that's a very different type of
design goal that one is trying to reach
and I think this is this can be used by
firms which are in that test design
[Music]
having an atomic clock there's one
atomic clock that tells you the time
till the very you know tenth decimal
point and that is crazy expensive and
some standards organization maybe in
Greenwich or somewhere else has has this
stay the gold standard atomic clock to
tell time on the other hand if I ask you
time and I check my own and fifteen
others check the time we can more or
less converge on the right time right
and that's the beauty of the idea you're
describing as long as you know my watch
is independently set relative to yours
we might be able to by trying it across
all of these gets them you get a
remarkably accurate enough at least to
to get get moving in the paper you also
mentioned that it doesn't have to be at
the individual level necessarily we
could do inferences and
at a higher level in groups for instance
can you tell us a bit more about that
yeah definitely and this is something
that has already started being done yeah
so for instance in Germany this is being
done I know for sure it's being done
with testing of hospital staff they
imagine instead of testing each
individual if you pulled blood samples
let's say you pull 20 blood samples and
then and you need only a tiny bit for
any one test so you may have drawn some
blood take a tiny bit of that and from
each of 20 people and create a pooled
sample and then run a test now if the
test comes out negative and it's a good
strong test then everyone goes scot-free
if it comes out positive then you could
say well let's divide into now ten and
ten and one of those two might come out
positive yes right so that's the idea
and once you start thinking about having
20 samples and then how to divide the
set or that becomes an optimization
problem interesting yeah very cool and
the key point here is we have tools to
deal with this not necessarily you know
RNA tests or genetic testing tools these
are statistical tools that we can apply
often applied at other areas exactly and
optimization models yeah so from your
perspective who you mentioned the need
for governments to to act is it simply a
mindset that says we need to have the
most accurate information or is it just
sort of people haven't thought through
things what would you want change to who
so presumably you'll be taking this to
the public
health authorities what would come next
as a result of this within your mind
yeah good question I would want because
it's one thing to have conceptual ideas
it's quite another thing to get this
implemented so what I would want is in
fact experimentation where the
appropriate folks who would be folks who
are very familiar with testing and
either in the lab or you know at point
of care to be taking different tests and
using this approach and you know I think
they would hopefully find that it does
work and then the other thing that is
needed so governments are looking in in
their own jurisdictions but if you have
like you said let a thousand flowers
bloom it's you need someone who gets the
flowers to talk to each other and that
could be a body like the w-h-o for
instance there's already one
organization called find fi ND which i
believe is also in geneva which has
created a big database of all the tests
but then if you if you take that kind of
database but then put on this extra
layer of okay let's see which very
independent tests could be combined
together and then also look at four
particular governments what they're you
know how much are they willing to pay
because even for the cheaper tests there
are variations in price of those as well
and variations in accuracy but putting
all of that together one could come up
with the suggestions for what would be
appropriate in each country and then if
you think about just oh you and I right
trying to buy tests where would you go
if you wanted to buy a test right now oh
I was looking forward to looking to
Amazon but apparently it's not available
yeah yeah so with Amazon for instance
you could imagine that every time if it
if you went to buy one test if you could
get some guidance that hey maybe you
want to buy this other test as well just
by the - as a as a package already or
include everything together and and and
provide some sort of means for public
health authorities to also identify
which individuals tested and retested
that's a great idea
so actually gathered data through Amazon
or an Amazon is very efficient at
gathering data we know that already
[Music]
which would also lower costs and it's
interesting rubbish because you've done
quite a bit of work on disruptive
innovation yourself do you see any
possibilities you know wearing that
destructive innovation thinking hat yes
this is a beautiful example isn't it so
in the in the standard story of
disruptive innovation we say the
tendency among those who were resource
rich is to seek better and higher and
higher performance variations versions
of existing products or existing systems
and you're a rich country for instance
you can say that or if you have lots of
time on your hands you could say that
but if time is crucial or resources are
minimal and this is very relevant to the
start to developing countries a point
you allude to in the paper as well then
what you could do it you could get be
good enough by using other bringing into
play other dimensions that might that
might push up performance so in this
case not a more accurate device or way
of testing a particular individual
device or test but rather
multiple tests that are necessary also
achieved and that's a wonderful example
of low-cost innovation that allows you
to to achieve many of the same or are
good enough to achieve wonderful
examples this one other point I wanted
to chat about common Linea and that is
the issue of how this situation might be
different in developing countries
relative to developed countries at least
so far it appears that a lot of
developing countries could be very badly
affected on the other hand at least so
far based on the rather limited testing
it appears that the virus hasn't reached
as many as large a percentage of the
population as and in some other
countries would you proposing is also
relevant there right so if you can pool
for instance tests you can you can apply
to large numbers especially it be
numbers of the percentage of the people
who are affected is very small that the
pooling strategy would make especially a
good sense I would imagine because the
odds that you will find the virus in any
one place in any one pool sample so I
see the relevance to yeah that's a great
point that's a great point because you
know how many you put into a pool sample
is itself of a decision it could be ten
it could be fifty exactly exactly
yeah well we could go we could channel
that length I will note that you have
lots of specific and very very practical
details on what can be what needs to be
done also the the database that you were
alluding to earlier in the paper you
point
what the parameters that you go into the
database should be so I encourage
everyone to read the paper and I also
encourage everybody to to check out the
other materials we have on the COBIT
conversations site on the wheeler
Institute page we're commonly me you've
been such a steadfast supporter of
everything we're doing thank you for for
not only sharing your insights but also
helping us see the world differently as
we face this thank you so much Rajesh
likewise and I think it is fantastic
what you and the wheeler Institute are
doing for our research at London
Business School and in particular
research that effects of the developing
world
[Music]
you

---

### The impact of Covid-19 in capital flows and emerging markets | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vw9tkdd3r6Q

Transcrição não disponível

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### The impact of Covid-19 in Russia and Eastern Europe | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZyfum2T1mA

Transcrição não disponível

---

### Lessons from Ebola Crisis to improve outcomes during COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K9o5NUy23wU

Transcrição não disponível

---

### Mobile payments impact on underserved communities in times of crisis | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t1AME0ZYjfw

Transcrição não disponível

---

### The economic implications of COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IpL5t6CQv5U

Transcrição não disponível

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### Good leadership when growth slows | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s1LGb2X5YE8

Transcrição não disponível

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### The impact of Covid-19 in South Africa | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Ng68Kghfug

Idioma: en

[Music]
welcome to another episode of our Kovac
conversations today we're joined by Nick
bin Adele Nick is one of the most
prominent academics have been the the
founder founding dean of the Gooden
Institute of business Sciences
pioneering institutions that's part of
the University of Victoria in South
Africa and more generally an adviser to
CEOs presidents ministers not only in
South Africa but around the world and
also a friend of our school at London
Business School and the wheeler
Institute
Nick every year joins our MBA students
in South Africa to give them a bit of
context about because he has his unique
ability to put things in context share
the insights of the reality of business
and society and leadership not only from
the view from the top but also from the
ground up Nick absolute delight to have
you back how are you doing I'm well
rajesh dealing with these turbulent
times thank you I suppose having come
out of a South African history and
thinking back to the 80s when life was
extremely turbulent we have experienced
these kind of challenges before though
these are completely unprecedented and
different I have moments where I'm very
very concerned and unclear about how
this is all going to work out for
everybody but in general I'm good and
very very busy thank you and you're safe
and all family friends are ok for now so
today is the first of May South Africa's
just true nurturing open
cracking open the doors a bit in it's
rather extraordinary lockdown relative
to other parts of the world we're quite
a few of the realities of daily life
have been locked down can you talk a bit
about whether that has implied in terms
of the challenges will come later on to
what some solutions might be what you're
observing and what you think should be
both from a perspective of of
decision-makers who have great influence
but also from the perspective of those
on the ground but let's start with the
challenges what have you seen so far
especially as you look at the world
through South African eyes well I mean
first to say the president president
Ramaphosa made a quite early and
emphatic decision with his cabinets to
create this lockdown of the economy and
it's very hard to tell as we historians
were all the guards how each country
handle this but ours was pretty emphatic
so he literally shut down the economy
and movements unlike many other
economies who could support its
workforce South Africa doesn't have the
financial resources to do so
so this was a very very brave and
difficult decision and as you know and
many would know that before the
breakdown for the lockdown so that his
economy or was already in a very
difficult situation so this has been an
added impact and if you study the
structure of our economy one of the most
unequal in the world we have a very very
high unemployment rate and so this
really was a shock to the economy apart
from the medical and social issues so it
was a dramatic choice he put human life
ahead of economic life and as you just
indicated we've now gone through in
today is the first day of the first
phase where beyond running essential
businesses we're now starting to open up
the economy a little bit in mining and
manufacturing and so on so it's been a
well managed a well managed policy yeah
the difficulty in South Africa is
execution on the ground
the army have been called out to assist
they haven't been trained to do this
well the police have been trying to
manage the lockdown it's not easy and
South Africans have a long history of
resilience but also of defiance
the struggle led to a really tough
minded attitude and in the in the poor
community as I've been working in
delivering food and helping both of the
forty thousand feet level little sama
ground I would say the lockdown was only
been partially effective thank you now I
want to come back to a couple of points
you've made you mentioned the indeed
brave and difficult decisions made by
the President and local government in
response to this crisis in South Africa
has been a leader on many dimensions in
its history with respect to for instance
the HIV crisis it was not and perhaps
some of that experiences is reflected in
in that response what are you finding in
terms of the reaction of both those in
the business community and especially
those in large businesses as well as as
you said resilience and resistance you
know and willingness to take things for
granted that's a very good question as
you know South Africa is a corporate
economy yeah it's got quite a weak SME
economy and so corporate South Africa's
really the strength of our economy and
what has happened in the last few months
is business and governments have really
cooperated together yeah so we've
launched a solidarity fund where
individuals and companies have put
hundreds of millions of dollars into a
fellow Angelenos iran's and many
millions of dollars into a fund to
assist manage the process to keep
businesses afloat and to assist in terms
of food and so on so there's emerged a
very good partnership
I'm involved in a group called the
public-private growth initiative which
has been running for two years we
converted that into helping give
guidance to the presidency and cabinets
about the regulatory environment under
which we would define essential services
and now begin opening up what we calling
a risk-adjusted phasing to the opening
of the economy so relationship has been
very good and although there many
criticisms and the public and so on have
comments we made the decision to ban the
sale of cigarettes which is very unusual
the president announced that we'd lift
the ban the minister announced today
that we weren't going to go to the ban
so you know it's not all straightforward
and straight sailing but I have to say
both business and government have been
decisive and business in general has
been very generous in supporting the
social needs because government has very
little in the Fiskars to spend I want to
come back to that but since you
mentioned cigarettes and alcohol and
which is a whole other conversation
which in in the UK alcohol is now deemed
an essential service so wine stores well
we are exporting our line but we're not
a lot of drinkers I have been a happy
beneficiary role does business have in a
moment like this and you've been a
leader in pointing out the very unique
responsibilities that especially large
firms have been in around the world but
uniquely saw in a place like South
Africa for the reasons you mentioned now
here we are you know in a situation that
then nobody had wished for or expected
even we thought we had seen the bottom
and apparently we had not what is the
role of business in a situation big
business corporate business South Africa
in a situation like this besides so so
some company is of course in some
industries have been hit extremely hard
they've gone from thriving sectors like
tourism to zero as has happened all
around the world and so it's support to
see what we can do to support those most
vulnerable and some of the big companies
are going to come under cashflow
pressure because the big companies have
undertaken to keep paying employees in
the mean time unlike in Europe where
governments are subsidizing employee
salaries we just don't have the
resources to do that so there is going
to be a moment up there in the next 60
90 days where that becomes an issue what
government have done is increased the
social grant it's a small grants but
it's a survival grant and then what
business has done is contributed these
funds to assist and that's been fairly
successful I was worried a week or two
ago that we might find literally
starvation and that's extraordinary in a
wealthy country and and and for that to
happen but we've overcome much of the
logistics mainly through NGOs civil
society and business have worked
together very closely in the last two
months so I'm sure the critics would say
business should do more I think there's
an interesting debate that we're
starting to have between financial
capitalism the rachelle older model
which has been the dominant logic in
South Africa and a more developmental
form of capitalism where business is
owns and embeds itself in the life of
the nation a friend of mine said to me
an interesting thing about this time in
South Africa you know we've had 25 years
of democracy and given our history it
was a remarkable achievement we've had
free and fair elections and government
performs and does what it can but this
is the test of whether the country can
be a nation and we're the business and
government and civil society figure out
they need each other and therefore their
prospects for a newer higher level moral
partnership where business is really
seen as part of the fabric of the
country and some people and some
companies have been extremely generous
in in realizing that this inequality is
an immoral
and so I think there's the potential for
a new debate the problem is that
government and business is really
focused on short-term survival but we're
beginning to think about in phase three
or phase four how do we think about
restructuring this economy to make it
fairer to make it more inclusive and to
try and decrease this catastrophic and
growing inequality that we've had in
South Africa in a democracy and of
course the left is pushing in one angle
and let's call it the right or the
center is pushing in another and we'll
see if we have national leadership that
are able to construct a kind of new form
of social contract it's not just
something about restarting the old
engine it's about can we redesign some
of the fundamentals because we've gone
to Ground Zero in so many ways and do
you point about stakeholder capitalism
and one of the greatest one of the
greatest contributions of business to
society is the ability to offer millions
of people a good steady dignified
dignity offering job and if the
businesses as you mentioned remain in a
position and able to and willing to
sustain that that would truly be
meaningful far more than a CSR effort in
some ways in a moment of great national
need well I think they've made three
layers to this economy in a way so that
gives a highly sophisticated financial
market stock exchange etc it is really
professional services that are really
world-class and then it has a second
layer and then this third layer of the
majority of South Africans one has to
say who either earned their income
informally they casual laborers they
contract workers and that's where the
pain is really being felt now I don't
see us having the resources to
fundamentally
all of this like pulling a rabbit out of
a hat we're dealing with a structure
that has emerged over hundreds of years
some decades and it's very hard to
reform this because is an ideological
dogmatism that is shaped a debate very
often and then there's a structural
reality about the nature of wealth so if
government takes progressive moves too
far to the so-called left if you like
business and capital will shrink back
from investing and will feel threatened
and if government sits in the middle and
doesn't do some of the progressive
things that need to be done the people
the voters will take umbrage ultimately
and so what the prison's is doing I
think so far very effective he's talking
to both constituents and managing to
create for the first time I think in
many years since Nelson Mandela a kind
of common consensus and in general he is
very popular for having been pragmatic
for being humanitarian in his approach
and for communicating so steadfastly the
approach and we've had expert advice
from our medical scientists and we've
managed to get that across and at least
outside where one years is when other
countries are struggling with
politicians refusing to listen to
scientific advice has a history of
having done that in the past here those
very same individuals who did not get a
hearing in the past are now actively
shaping the response all the twists and
turns of South African politics policy
society it seems like at least as an
outsider one sense is a greater level of
trust in in the folks involved in well
well it's very newly emerged because six
months ago many South Africans including
the middle class were doubting the
leadership star
of ceramic poison they felt he wasn't
decisive enough he wasn't making clear
decisions he wasn't taking action on
corruption enough actually what we've
seen is a president who's had a
remarkable history as a man who built
the largest union in the world after the
Second World War he was
secretary-general of the ANC he's been a
business person he's been the deputy
president say he's had a remarkable mix
of experiences that have all now come to
the fore I think the point I wanted to
say about this different response as
opposed to the AIDS denialism and its
president and Becky is how leaders frame
the problem early becomes absolutely
decisive because the president has
authority so we implemented the disaster
management act and he seized the
initiative by shaping and framing the
problem well I think a lot of leaders
wait for the problem to emerge and
they're not sure they'd like a a rabbit
in the headlights and from a pause a
demonstrative clarity about this
firmness that won him a lot of support
in cabinets and elsewhere when you say
he framed it early on I certainly
wouldn't you mean can you elaborate on
that well you know as we watched as we
were slightly lagging so we had a sort
of three week lag to see the data and we
saw the difference between countries
that lockdown and those that didn't and
he firmly seized on the idea with
medical advice that would be the right
thing to do to impose this very severe
shock on the economy and we will only
know in years to come whether that was
the right decision or not but it was a
decisive it was a decisive moment and he
made a decision as did the cabinet and
that's what we living through now yeah I
want to go from the lofty heights of of
residents and CEOs to those on in the on
the ground the grass roots as well as
MBA students as a as a professor
and someone who many I know for a fact
many students including our own at
London Business School look up to let me
start with the MBA students and then I
want to hear about your thoughts having
been involved in some of those food
delivery initiatives among others what
you think those who are coming up you
know going through their formative
business training in this moment what
should they be thinking what should they
be doing how should they how is it how
should this experience shape their
thinking in actions of the years I think
the first thing is that the overwhelming
majority of our students are part-time
and what we had to do is shut down the
campus and we're a face-to-face
environment and we had to move over
about four weeks into a form of digital
access and we had to pick a technology
that would be accessible to all our
students which was interesting because
we had to pick not the best technology
for the minority but the best technology
for all and we then moved we opened on
Monday all our programs are now open and
the faculty then had to switch into this
form of learning so the faculty have
been scurrying around learning how to
maximally teach in in this technology I
think the students also of course
because they part time have been dealing
with the total change in their work
environments and learning to work from
home with all the challenges that we all
have been talking about and this is a
particularly big challenge for leaders
because you've lost the face-to-face if
you know your team that's fine
but you've lost the sort of impact and
the research is showing that the the
Xoom meetings that we're all doing our
exhausting meetings because you've lost
something that's almost hard to define
and they're dealing with all the other
social pressures are being at home our
kids have been on holiday so MBAs as
they always are having to juggle all
those balls learn to learn in a
different mode receive from faculty
whatever we doing in a different mode
in doing their jobs and dealing with
this new social environment so that adds
up to a lot of pain which hopefully will
lead to a lot of game which is
assumptions that we all hold so dear
about our life is what work is our
economies and company should function
have all been suspended and we've gone
to the wormhole into a new world and we
don't know what that new world is going
to come out in all its facets and
they're those who think it's all going
to get back to normal and then there
people say we'll never be the same they
live we all living moment by moments and
that puts a lot of psychological
pressure on the nba's so far from what
we've seen there's been a very good
response and everyone realizes we're in
the same boat so there's a high level of
cooperation very little criticism of
what the decisions our school has made
so that's gone pretty pretty well if I
talk a bit about on the ground I sort of
got zoomed out eventually after so many
policy discussions that we were having
because the group I'm part of the
presidency asked us to advise them so we
did and we had countless meetings with
governments and with the President
himself and then with ministers and and
executives in government and then with
civil society where I'm also connected
many many meetings about the issue
what's to be done it cetera but I found
I reached a point where I had to I had
to do something rather than talk about
us and so a few of us got together and
started raising funds for food parcel
delivery one of the dilemmas in South
Africa is we have a very large migrant
population many of whom are not
registered and the government policy has
largely been not to feed them and these
are many of the casual informal laborers
ours referring to earlier so we set
about supporting them on the ground do
you mean by greeting from the wrists in
pub we and so on yes and so we we raised
funds and that got me into these
communities in fact the video we took of
5,000 people lining up in a totally
disciplined way two days ago is gone
totally viral all over the world because
we delivered 6,000 parcels into a 40,000
person community and informal settlement
like a favela and they
total discipline and so we raising the
funds to keep them fed I welcome to its
and and I've just spent the morning in
there and you know it's amazing the
poverty these people are living under
and they the ones who really lost their
income so the support for them and we
were beginning to change the
government's attitude to supporting them
as well it's a humanitarian question I
felt very morally compromised and I was
a citizen of a country that had allowed
people in but when there was a crisis
wasn't prepared to support them so we've
been getting that message across as you
know we go we visit South Africa once a
year from the rainbow nation actually
includes many nations so grateful that
you make a final question before we let
you get on with the work you're doing
what lessons would you offer giving your
experience as a global scholar from
Africa what lessons does the South
African response and sort of near-term
the expectation imply for the rest of
the world so it's a very difficult
question to answer because I think all
of us are going through a similar macro
environment you know the same stresses
and strains are but the outcomes of
difference depending on two things
what's your situation going in and what
choices you make while you're in it and
I don't know if such as any unique
lessons to learn I think there are many
countries with similar demography
economics and politics as US I don't
think there's one thing that stands out
if there is it's that we've had trouble
times in our recent history yeah and
we've come together as a constitutional
democracy which most of the world
thought was quite remarkable and what I
see is being very interesting in this
process is the opportunity to create a
nation out of a country to create a
common Lysander standing of the need for
each other the role that everybody plays
and maybe the lesson is to abandon how
you've got in the room and what I often
say is you know how we've got in the
room and what we're doing in the room is
not how we going to get out of the room
so you can take the lessons from the
past and see which of them are useful
but you have to have a realistic grip on
the current reality and then you've got
to start shaping next as a leader and
this is very very hard work I I've been
talking to CEOs of companies who accept
that they've had to mask some of their
own emotions because we do face with
very significant layoffs one of our big
giant retailers is closing down our
airline is in business rescue the
national airline be going for 80 years
so there are very hard choices and so
leaders tend to put on a good mask we
try to help them make sure that they can
manage their own emotions and what I've
learned is there three things there's
your emotional entry into it why I got
so active on the ground it helped me
cope with the policy stuff because I
felt emotionally that I was dealing with
the real issue in a very small way
secondly there's the physical action of
getting out and engaging with people and
and seeing their responses to the help
they get which is very motivating and
then thirdly there's the intellectual
challenge of defining the issues that
are in front of you in a way that are
insightful and useful to others so that
you're framing what the organization's
doing appropriately I've been working
with one big company where the sea has
just simply been outstanding because his
is daily communication to the entire
company opens up for discussion all the
time the Dean of the
school has a zoom call every day 15
minutes for all the stuff so that sort
of direct personal communication to show
people that you are in the battle you're
as vulnerable as they are maybe not
quite as vulnerable if you're a highly
paid executive but still you are in the
battle and that you're at the front of
the battle and that you will assist them
to get through this tough process I
think that's a kind of a spirit of the
best of South Africa and you witnessed
it when we won the world rugby against
England that's a joke societies around
the world are coming together in in a
sense of solidarity that very often has
been missing where we see differences
among each other and now we see my god
we're all in this together on the other
hand there have been worries in fact my
colleague Ilyas who you know is doing
some remarkable work about how far right
or extremist movements or politicians
are harnessing these what is happening
right now to their own end and what
would you describe to us about South
Africa gives me hope that despite the
very difficult especially the last few
years have not been easy either and if a
horrible crisis like this can lead to
good outcomes in South Africa can lead
to lead to greater trust in institutions
in South Africa that would be a great
gift to the rest of the world not least
to South Africa rest of the world as
well and with that Nik we should let you
go and thank you for your gift of time
and insight I always
thank so much Rajesh and and good luck
to you and lbs on figuring your way and
this kind of contribution which is
Israeli needed we're we're all looking
for guidance
thank you for prodding me a platform for
all of us thank you and that's the
perfect cue for me to note to those
listening and watching that there are
there are more insights in our covert
conversations page so please check those
out there are articles or background
materials and we'll be having many more
such conversations Nick thank you as
they say and speak to you pleasure
[Music]

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### Hunger could kill more people than COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS
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### Role of business in society | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CzsMazkMLWI

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### Wheeler Institute COVID-19 series | London Business School
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXKb-CZMmcI

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### Coronavirus will shape political institutions, businesses and leaders | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tzSacwPzdas

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### Consumer behaviour insights from China in times of COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPfmu3FKlsM

Idioma: en

[Music]
welcome to another edition of our Kubik
conversation series this time we're
joined by Juliet - Juliet is a a long
time friend Juliet I was just realizing
it's been 20 years since we've met you
and you were a doctoral student and I
was a brand-new assistant professor
Juliet has gone on from being a doctoral
student all those years ago very
distinguished scholar and academic one
of the leaders of the academic community
in China after having had a very
successful career in the US and in
Canada has been has been at the g8 has
been at the ck GSB cheung-kong Graduate
School of Business in China and Juliet
you're joining us I understand from
Shanghai right now welcome hello Rajesh
thanks so much for having me here it's
great to see you by the way for so long
yes before we get into the questions
that I'm dying to get to questions
because you rep you I'm hoping we'll be
able to give us a glimpse of your
academic expertise but also based and
the fact that you live in Shanghai and
you're getting to see all this firsthand
and but before I get into that a few
nodes so you're a professor of marketing
at ckg SP you are the director of the
social innovation and brand Research
Center at execute ESB and you also
helped run the Ember program admin role
also I I know from reliable sources that
from all the way from Minnesota when we
were together that your star teacher and
you have this unique ability to thus put
things in context for those
who may not understand the context very
well so that's what I'm thrilled you'll
be able to join you were able to join us
and I'm hoping you'll be able to do so
some background before we jump in
obviously much of the world right now is
under lockdown China went through
process earlier than the rest of the
world and so some of what China may be
experiencing could represent a glimpse
potentially about the future that we may
each live in the next few weeks and
months to come but the other part is we
in these covert conversations we've been
having conversations with policymakers
or what policymakers do or what CEOs and
leaders and various others should do or
what NGO your heads are doing and so on
particularly thrilled that Iran because
what I would love to get from you given
your expertise is the daily reality of
consumers small business owners and
small business owners in particular
because in much of the developing world
that represents the bulk of employment
that represents the bulk of the economy
and of course as we know they are in
many cases some of the worst affected
and their lives in the case of millions
of small business owners around the
world big question mark about how life
will return and what normality would
mean so can you tell us a bit about
daily reality and specifically one of
the things about constraints and
challenges is that it brings out human
ingenuity and innovation innovation on
the part of policymakers on the part of
small business owners can you give us a
few examples and perhaps we could try
and generalize from those over to you
yeah
of course yeah well thanks so much for
the wonderful introduction well first of
all thanks for having me here and it's
great to meet all the audience whether
hopefully I'll be able to see you
offline sometime in the future
I mean Shanghai right now and it's May
1st
2020 so China has scouser this pandemic
earlier than most countries than all
other countries but just to give you a
sense of how life it is right now this
morning because it's a holiday weekend
so this morning my husband my son my
limo possum or a soccer game outdoors so
things are definitely getting back
normal and I went up for a run for
jogging this morning and so people are
just very excited to be able to go
outside and meet friends and life's are
getting back to normal so there is hope
down the road so definitely look forward
to that everybody has to hope that it's
just on that what is the situation with
respect to retail stores and such right
now well I think in Shanghai in Shanghai
all the retail stores are open in most
cities retail and in fact this is the
this is the big holiday break right now
so the government's from the century to
the local governments are actually
hoping to use this holiday break to
stimulate consumption as the loss of
sales loss of promotions go yell they're
encouraging people to to consume to buy
well historically the Chinese consumer
one of the virtues of Chinese society
has been saving for the future have a
natural desire to what you see which is
not exactly great retailer yes yes
definitely yeah and I mean the virus
coronavirus is being under control in
China right now but the economy has been
as everybody knows hurt badly so there
is a urgency
to revive the economy in China and I'm
sure around the world as well and so
these are from you know a marketing
professor perspective as well as from
consumers perspective to see how our
country how China is trying to do this
and I noticed that we're taking some
what does slightly different paths from
other countries aren't world so for
example like the UK us the government is
putting for this whole package like a
u.s. is two trillion dollars UK is doing
something similar but in China instead
of coming out of a big package stimulus
plan I think we're doing different
things such as - no waving rents and the
insurances for these small businesses
but another interesting observation I've
been having is government local
governments are collaborating with these
business vendors to give out electronic
coupons to consumers and these are
actually I did a bit of research
it started in Macau as early as February
early February and then I started to
spread to other cities in China in
Hangzhou in Nanjing et cetera and so
what it happens is it collaborates with
Alibaba and 10 cent so because a payment
is very popular in their community in
China so what they do is the government
will issue these equal pumps it
automatically well you have to get it
you have to get it on your platform and
once you have it these coming forms of
either 10 20 and 50 um etc but you have
to it works like a leverage so you have
to spend certain amount of money in
order to redeem this coupon so for
example if they have a 10-grand coupon
you need to spent maybe say 50 men in
order to use this 10 coupon and so just
to give you sort of a perspective how
much this is working how well this is
working for example like in Hangzhou
Hangzhou is where is Ali Baba's were
based in Hangzhou
very beautiful city conjul government
issue twice these electronic who comes
for a total amount of close to 250
million RMB so that translate back to
pound that's 25 million
let's take you know ten so 25 million
but how much consumption that is
stimulating by ten times
[Music]
no it's lady you get so the news will
say well these coupons will be sent out
to those videos but not everybody gets
it you have to basically within a period
of time you have to go on this platform
either cheerful bowel or other wallet
platform and then you have to try to get
it within everybody else gets it there's
the limited amount of coupons so yeah
the early ones or lucky ones then online
or can you also use that in physical
stores no you can use it online as well
as offline so these coupons are
primarily used in retailing travel and
also tourist places and also groceries
food lots of restaurants are issuing
these coupons as well and also
bookstores but primarily retailing they
can be used to offline as well so this
draws people in and gets them actually
spending partly subsidized by the
government but it magnifies or rather
amplifies the face
any government spending potentially by a
factor of 10
given the yeah yeah no and it's
interesting cuz right - yours yes sorry
you are say you Rajesh saving is the big
part in probably in these collective
cultures and especially if you think
about in times like right now people
don't have lots of money and so if you
just to give people money I'm actually
not sure whether they will spend it and
to what extent they will spend it versus
saving it but I guess the coupon works
in a way from a psychology you know here
psychologists talking from a psychology
perspective is a leverage I mean also
has the expiration date if you don't
spend within this period of time it
expires so impasses is stimulus
consumption yeah and that's partly
because of this sense of scarcity both
in whether or not you get a coupon and
then if you don't spend about Redemption
behavior a particular time period
implies therefore that people who are
more likely to now the challenge of
course they're the retailers and then
there were manufacturers whose lives
have been disrupted and supply chains
that break down and you know you may
have farmers in one place who have lots
of produce and others who could use the
produce but it's actually rotting
they're hearing stories of this what
have you heard about more broadly around
supply chains or anything else
that that involves ingenious response -
yeah no that's a great question ready -
and this happens particularly - in times
like this where everything was cut down
locked down or just you know a few
months back and so if you want to buy
some thing you know basically
transportation was down and then a lot
of the courier services were off as well
and so what could he do and this is
where I think creativity really sort of
business owners these entrepreneurs
their sense of innovation really helps
here I've been amazed just to see you
know what people could come up with in
these trying tales trying times to solve
these problems so one thing I've been
noticing is well you can go offline
stores you can go to these freaking
water stores during the lockdown but
then online is still available and in
fact if the online is booming the online
business was booming everything's the
lockdown started and one thing have been
noticing is these what would I call you
know internet celebrity and doing
merchandising selling products through
life streaming online platforms and so
in fact a live streaming you know you
know selling is not new in China at all
there was a very famous interesting
exactly just gonna just sorta interrupt
on that just context Juliette Chris
China is famous for this remarkable
increase and popularity of success in
so-called
online to offline all right so in a way
that much of the world has a quite scene
just yet
all of these stories about how they will
not only deliver the hot pot meal to
your home they will also pick up the hot
pot and so China has a
remarkable recent history of combining
online with offline and that's the
useful context so it's not as if this is
a brand new thing it's just accelerated
what we yes yes yeah and that's a great
background on top of that it used to be
just online offline combination but now
what's happening is really cv sort of
celebrity internet celebrity who are
becoming really important opinion
leaders in terms of selling products
online and so what I'm talking here are
not just talking about you know I reckon
you know has to be a movie star or
something could be a regular person but
becomes the internet celebrity so for
example there's sky Copley Joshi know is
a guy first of all and he's most well
known for selling lipsticks a lie and in
fact he was so popular and he was so
successful so in 2018 we're not talking
about and like almost two years ago 2018
November the 11th so that's our like
11:11 day which is a big promotion day
it's like Boxing Day eus and so on that
day so Jack Ma had a competition with
this celebrity li Joshi they both tried
to sell lipsticks online your life
streaming context and turns why I can
share the video with you later and so
probably like 10 lipsticks and this guy
sounded and so so I was 2018 now fast
forward to today you know during the
pandemic it just accelerated to this
sort of life streaming marketing and as
well as business selling a lot of
products especially a lot of traditional
breaking water stores and they are
mentoring in to these online platforms
and CEOs and salespeople
all going online doing live streaming
and demonstrating products and most of
them are experiencing really sort of
tremendous success in terms of
communicating with autism directly mom a
consumer for lipstick
how do I know to know when will the live
streaming happen and live streams going
on as we speak so is there an
aggregation to celebrities and others
not yeah no no there are these well of
course there are a lot of you know live
streaming platforms but there are three
major was which accounts for majority of
the market share and so the biggest one
is on Taobao which belongs to Alibaba
solely Jackie the lips big guy and he
sells he goes left streaming on Taobao
and so Taobao is the place where
basically is like the biggest live
streaming place and selling products and
there's also the tick tock tick tock as
well no in places outside of China in
China Estonian and so there are
celebrities selling products online
there as well so this is there's this
one entrepreneur cut law oh wow
which is a very interesting entrepreneur
and he has his own companies that inc
cell phones and just about a month ago
on April the first and he did this live
streaming show um though in which is you
know tick-tock in LA and so for three
hours for three hours I think he sold a
hundred and ten million yen products and
that's about 11
million-pound and that's for three hours
and and he attracted 48 million visitors
just watching him there and in the room
and basically burrow casting these
products and selling but of course he's
a celebrity that also says the power of
the celebrity and this is happening not
just two whiskeys you know sort of
selling regular products were also
talking about local government leaders
and so these local government leaders
especially seeing the farmers having
wrong products you know not being able
to sell because of the lockdown and they
saw this opportunity so recently what
have been observing is these local
government leaders they are going these
platforms they are basically trying to
endorse these products and selling hey
come by our you know potatoes tomatoes
and all these products live streaming
potatoes potatoes because I wanted to
support hon so there are different ways
to support that so recently a lot of my
grocery has been you know from hon that
sort of as my way to show you know my
support and her so most of the products
were really good and quite literally
farm-to-table yes new dose they were
just fantastic and also makes me feel
good employment and if it's small
business you're a small business owner
one of the most wrenching and difficult
decisions at the moment is saying I have
no money coming in or very little money
coming in I have all of these employees
with skills I value greatly often for a
long time and I can't afford to pay them
anymore and I don't know how long how
has Chinese business owners any insights
on what you've learned
no no that's that's really really a good
question and in fact I was just watching
Xion this morning looking at the
unemployment number just as scary and I
can see the pain people are going to
arrest was the you know small business
owners paying they're going sir we had
that our share on our own but one thing
that I noticed which I thought was
really brilliant really brilliant and I
hope that could be heard by other people
hopefully will benefit other people as
well is what I've seen in China at that
time we observe these employee sherry
perhaps so what does that mean is like
you can think about is like you have car
pool you have car sharing you have
Airbnb apartment charity but here what
business owners are doing is employee
sherry because during the lockdown most
oh the other restaurants were closed and
but the owners had to pay their
employees you know base salary as well
as some of the coverage of insurance etc
it's a huge burden and these people you
know most owner and the employees you
know the situation is terrible on the
other hand because of the lockdown the
online service grocery delivering those
kind of service were in high demand and
so for example like for these auto
online grocery stores like Coloma which
belongs to Ali Baba and daily fresh all
these online platforms they were just in
desperate need of workers of delivery
guy and so what happened was these
two groups of owners business owners
they joined together and they tried to
do employee sherry
so for restaurant waiters and waitresses
right now you don't have a job you could
be hired by these online grocery
platforms and you could be the delivery
guy and so that started earlier but
quickly got spreaded so many restaurant
owners joined the program and their
employees were able to find job in these
online grocery platforms and also get
paid employment and that also cuts the
cost of these restaurant owners as well
that lasted for quite some time which I
thought was really sort of a brilliant
solution for a problem and benefited
everybody one is you know the waiter
providing delivery services where you
know you may be an extremely skilled
waiter it may not necessarily have those
skills may or may not help you in your
delivery service on the other hand you
know maybe you specialize in you're a
chef you specialize or a sous chef you
specialize it from a certain place you
get moved to someplace else maybe your
skills your capabilities could be
helpful somewhere else as well it's not
it's not all the unskilled applications
together you might be creating entirely
new businesses or business formats as
well right so either bringing this food
delivery capabilities to many
restaurants as we think about what will
happen with the world of restaurant what
will the restaurant of tomorrow look
like well having first delivery
experience might be helpful to
understand there or fascinating because
we think about recombination as a source
of innovation right so people with very
different skills and that may
yield combinations that that are
valuable and I can see just through the
active employee sharing not only sort of
economic benefit psychological benefit
[Music]
yeah and one could think of platforms
that help facilitate that as well
yeah I think I think people were sort of
doing flexible working schedules or
ready separately offline but I think
during the pandemic this became such a
popular thing I could see hey this might
change how people choose to work and how
employers choose to hire employees down
the road yeah economy is working
full-time accepted and they have many of
the benefits of working full-time but be
shared across I know we keep going let
me just wrap here by by saying thank you
so much I am so glad to see you're not
only well just as energetic as as always
and just as insightful and and
knowledgeable and able to able to
communicate across different worlds just
as always thank you so much for joining
us and and and please stay safe give my
regards to Jack and the kids and a quick
note before we go to the over to those
who are watching and please join for
other series other videos of this series
of the public conversation series we are
we are constantly in the process of
developing further videos as well as
more conversations hopefully Julia we'll
have you back here in another one of
these part two
- yeah well thank you so much
Rajesh and if I could just add one more
thing and also maybe to the audience in
front of the Zoomer camera or whatever
platform you are using because this for
us we have been through this for almost
like you know five months are close to
five months four and a half actually
because I'm a consumer behavioral
researcher we actually started
collecting data in the midst of this and
we wanted to understand you know how
it's just for people Warren what could
be done in order to reduce the stress
level so based on our large data
collection we found something quite
amazing which I thought would be nice to
share and also and my conversation with
joy - here was even though the stress
level was high but we were able to find
that when people focus more their
attention and efforts in helping others
they actually find a better sense of
fulfillment and that heightened sense of
fulfillment actually reduces their
stress level I thought that was very
inspiring from our data
you know normally we look at these data
looking for significance you know as
scientists but when I look at the data
on during this period of time I was very
I was very pleased so I just wanted to
share it with everybody that you know
protect yourself but at the same time
help those that when you can and
actually will help you Indian as well so
thank you a wonderful line - thank you
again and great well thank you
[Music]
you
you

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### How information sharing can lead to behavioural change in the prevention of COVID-19 | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rlyP3qpgdkw

Transcrição não disponível

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### Could fear caused by COVID-19 affect voting behaviour? | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-YSQ8gkwKWM

Transcrição não disponível

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### Funding a COVID-19 vaccine, basic economy for extraordinary times | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CjpoNYR5W38

Idioma: en

[Music]
so welcome to The Cove 8:19 series of
lbs will elicited for business and
development today we are very pleased
and honored and I'm personally very
happy to welcome my old friend
Christopher Snyder joining us from
Hanover New Hampshire hey Christopher is
a professor of economics at Dartmouth
College and he's one of the world's
leading scholars in micro economics in
vessel organization he has done very
important work alongside with Mike
Kramer vaccines and health treatments
more generally a Chris thanks a lot for
taking the time and some of you are
really busy trying to change the world
for the better and also taking time to
join us some things you look for being
with us today
well it's my pleasure happy to talk
about my research passion but also happy
to be talking to my former colleague who
missed very much
Dartmouth it's great so I know that you
have been pushing a lot with my Kremen
about this advanced market commitment
idea with co19
but I think it's important that we get
all familiar with your work over the
past couple of years I recommend to our
viewers to to read your paper with a mic
on why there is no vaccine for HIV I
know you have been working on these
issues for a long time
so why don't you sketch the idea of
advanced market commitment and I know
that you have been made donors and the
Gates Foundation if I'm not mistaken
have been doing trial
so what did you tell us about your past
work so the advanced market commitment
was the brainchild of Michael Kramer he
described it in this book strong
medicine that he wrote with his life
Rachel glennister and so the idea here
was to try to incentivize the creation
the the Rd and in capacity investment in
vaccines for neglected diseases for for
poor countries so the point is that
there's just they're not a very
lucrative
markets so they need money to be to come
in from you know donor agencies and
donor countries and the question is how
to structure that so the idea here was
to provide some pull funding so that's
payment for vaccines that are that are
actually produced it's kind of an
alternative to say a prize mechanism
where you say you invent invent this new
vaccine or you invest in this capacity
and we'll pay you for that invention
here the payment is made for the actual
production and in fact it's tied to the
number of doses that get administered so
it has a some advantages first of all
the idea is to pre commit to have the
donors create this fund in advance of
the investment that firms make and and
what this does is it provides some
security to the firms where they make
these large investments you know Rd can
be hundreds of millions of dollars or
billions of dollars and capacity
investment could be a similar order and
you make those investments only to find
out that then the the purchasers say
well tell us how much does it cost you
to produce a dose and we'll pay that you
know and that fear the lack of security
leads firms to under invest in these
things so the idea here is to pre commit
to this this fund in advance you know
could be years in advance of the actual
production and so it's maybe put into an
escrow account and it's there for the
firm's any any firm that actually makes
the vaccine and invest in the capacity
then can compete for the for the funds
but it's it's tied to the number of
doses that eventually get sold or
administered and that has some
advantages to that way donors can avoid
paying for something that actually turns
out not to be useful for the end users
you can imagine that there could be
vaccines that meet you know target
product profile that turned out not to
be that useful for the target audiences
so may be that it requires some
cold-chain capacity that just doesn't
exist in these developing countries so
by the advanced market commitment
typically involves some kind of
co-payments that are made and the part
of the end consumers it could be
you know the countries of consumers and
selves or maybe even a non-governmental
organization on behalf of the countries
so it turns out that a vaccine or a
product is produced it's not all that
useful for the consumers well then they
won't make the co-payments and actually
nothing actually gets paid because it
doesn't get demanded and so there's a
feature of the program that in the end
the donors are only going to be only
paying for you know successful or useful
products in a sense the co-payment is
sort of a kill switch where we're you
know trying to come up with these
contracts and this mechanism years in
advance we don't know what the
eventualities are going to be this
provides kind of an out where if it
turns out not to be that useful given
the situation that materializes years
later then you know we don't have to
waste money on a useless product so my
understanding is now you have been
testing these there was a trial with a
particular vaccine
you know Michael's idea put forth with
with Rachel and this in this book and we
actually worked together on just the
economics of vaccines it turns out
vaccines are just a really interesting
product they're quite different from any
other other product so yes the the
Global Alliance for vaccines and
immunizations now called Gabby ran a
pilot program and they looked around and
they said you know what sort of disease
should we we run this for you know the
thinking malaria various other diseases
they eventually settle down pneumococcus
which I wasn't all that familiar with at
the time this is back in 2007 they
started to put the program together they
settled on pneumococcus the reason was
that it was a little further along in
the development cycle so you know they
actually had a couple vaccines in phase
3 trials so there wasn't as much
uncertainty about whether you can
imagine you could incentivize lots of
R&D but if it's a higher scientific
problem even if you say triple or x ten
the R&D that's going into the problem if
it's a really hard scientific problem it
still may not end up in a vaccine being
produced so they this is kind of a
closer to
to ultimate product it was quite far
along and clinical trials the question
there was more could you incentivize the
vast capacity investment that would be
that would be needed they were thinking
about having a you know just a global
campaign to vaccinate upwards of you
know 200 million children every year so
kind of you know just having it as part
of the childhood vaccination program now
pneumococcus I wasn't aware but it was
actually it's actually the leading
vaccine preventable killer of children
under five so it was estimates of eight
hundred thousand deaths a year due to do
two pneumococcus no and it turns out
that in developed countries you don't
hear about it as much because we have
readily available antibiotics that tends
to you know if you're diagnosed with
this you get the antibiotics and it's
only rare that it results in big health
problems or mortality but in poor
countries where they have less access to
to antibiotics it's a much bigger killer
so anyway they this was going to be the
pilot program and so they got a bunch of
different committees together I was part
of along with Michael Kremer and John
Levin part of the economics expert group
that there was a variety of people from
academics and Industry and anyway they
designed the program it turns out there
were some wrinkles involved because the
there was a lot of money put forth it
was 1.5 billion dollar program which in
development economics that's a lot of
money I mean usually programs are funded
with hundreds of thousands or millions
of dollars you're checking 1.5 billion
and actually the ultimate program and he
included all the co-payments was
somewhere more around the order of six
billion dollars ultimately so there were
some issues about you think that's a
very lucrative program but it turned out
there were only two firms that had the
vaccines that were pretty far along in
trials so it wasn't like they were you
know dozens of different companies that
could compete for this turned out there
was really well
a handful or maybe even fewer so the
question was you know how do you design
the particular particular areas of the
program for both rather than a fire term
product where you're trying to
incentivize R&D here you're just trying
to incentivize capacity and not only
that you know if you didn't have a lot
of potential participants if you only
had few you know how would you adjust
the mechanism and so those are some of
the issues we grappled with and anyway
it was rolled out in 2009 I believe and
it's by our estimates we have this
papers and proceedings paper in the
American Economic Association papers and
proceedings where we kind of did a
retrospective thought about some of the
theoretical principles and some of the
lessons from our experience and it seems
if you compare it to say other programs
for rotavirus so that were actually
rolled out with quite a bit of funding
behind them but not structure it is one
of these advanced market commitment it
seemed like it accelerated the
accelerated the rollout by about five
years no it's it's only two experiments
you know so it's not a large amount of
data but you know that's kind of the
best we can do with these with these
large programs what I find fascinating
reading your papers and proceedings that
it seems a pilot but it's so important
and the numbers are like so big of the
kids they were saved by bringing forward
this vaccine by some years it's subtle
but it's a big yeah some estimates
suggest that you know 700,000 children's
lives were saved by the accelerating of
the rollout of the vaccine so let's go
to anything the thing that you were
working on this issues and suddenly as I
guess you were presenting at the
American Economic Association meeting
sharing January you know Cove it was
unfolding actually perhaps it was the
time it was arriving in the US
politically heated debate when exactly
we've covered our eyes in the States
so now can you please elaborate on the
proposal that you have been pushing
forward together with Jonathan Levin and
Mike Kramer on how we can use these
advanced commitments
for covert 90 sure and I should say it's
a the team has grown and in size so
before I say anything here's the team
seasoned atheist joined from Stanford
and we have this is actually we have
policymakers economists some grad
students involved Alex Tabarrok and
George Mason University and others so
just a lot of contributions here and I
can kind of show you the slide before so
that was our experience up through the
pneumococcal pilot which you know stands
to reason that Michael Kramer would be
involved in student brain shell but
subsequently of course you won the Nobel
Prize this year in economics for his
work a lot of ones working with
randomized controlled trials actually in
development in any event you win the
Nobel Prize and you have this idea of an
advanced market people are going to find
you and say maybe this will work for the
covent vaccine and and that hits home
because we you know it's it's hitting
both rich and poor countries so the you
know the finance ministers start getting
really interested in it so various
countries and agencies approached
Michael we actually wrote a New York
Times piece with some preliminaries and
a program that was more designed for the
US because it was you know the New York
Times is a u.s. newspaper but
subsequently we've talked to other other
countries other other agencies and so
we've actually expanded the program to
an international program and you can see
this picture here this is our what we
call our shiny app where we have have
broaden it out and we do some analyses
we're just basically a broad global
international program so anyway so the
the basic I collect basic economics for
extraordinary times you know there's is
really not rocket science behind the
behind the economics here at least the
basic idea is but it is just such an
unusual time that some of the ideas
you know they'll be ex-post obvious but
you wouldn't necessarily be the first
thought so really three three principles
here behind behind the program so the
first is to go big that I don't want to
get across you it's going big and it's
its own it's such an unprecedented
situation that it's hard to wrap your
mind around how big we mean by big and
it leads to some new thinking another is
the the second point here the need for
market shaping so we're not going to
abandon the market we're gonna enlist
firms to help the countries are not
going to be able to start doing R&D and
all of a sudden create a vaccine
industry on its own we have to leverage
that but there's going to be some
shaping and there's gonna be some
incentives that I needed to be added and
and the final point is you know we move
from a u.s. proposal to the
International proposal there's lots of
economic arguments that there are big
gains from international cooperation
here so those are I think the three
takeaway points I'd like to make but as
far as you know the basics of the
proposal here let me just give you some
numbers really when we talk to various
policy makers and journalists and things
there's there's really one number and
that's from the IMS I am a forecast of
economic losses so this is just economic
output losses this is not health and
mortality 9 trillion dollars over the
next two years right so just think about
that so what does that mean if you do
the division by you know 9 trillion
divided by 24 months
that's 375 billion dollars that are just
an economic losses alone they're lost
every month that we are delayed
reopening the economy because of the
Cova crisis and of course that doesn't
include untoward mortality untold
mortality health and quality of life
costs so those are the numbers that's
just an unprecedented gain if we can
somehow end this crisis those are the
benefits so that actually changes your
thinking the numbers are that big then
all of a sudden spending you know 10 20
a hundred billion dollars
to accelerate the arrival of vaccine
which may be our only hope to escape
this quickly all of a sudden become
justified alright so here's some of the
basics of our international proposal
we're actually there's there is a lot of
existing funding for Rd if there are any
reasonable candidates out there and
they're you know 80 or so they're being
funded by you know maybe the country
itself or different vaccine authorities
so we'll leverage that but on top of
that there's going to be we're
advocating additional monies that are
invested in accelerating the investment
of capacity so this kind of harkens back
to the pneumococcal pilot where there it
was incentivizing much greater capacity
to serve the needs of poor countries
here we're recommending investing just
an unprecedent amount in scaling up
capacity and doing it quickly for
vaccine candidates so the you know these
numbers are subject to change are still
doing some analysis but proposal as it
stands now or we're talking about asking
countries to spend a point this is not
17 percent this is point one seven
percent so you know basically one-fifth
of 1% of the GDP say and 2018 and that
would amount to 147 billion dollars so
we're talking about is not spending you
know us like your paltry aid budget or
something it's not as much as countries
spend on their health budgets or their
defense budgets but it's it's somewhere
in between those two numbers what's this
going to be used for we're advocating
investing in many different projects 15
to 20 vaccine candidates and what we're
advocating is that capacity be built at
risk which means don't wait for phase 3
trials to finish start investing in huge
capacity for these candidates in advance
and we're talking huge capacity here you
know when people talk about vaccine
facilities you know they have 100
million capacity to produce say in a
year 100 million doses
here we're talking about building
capacity for 1.5 billion courses within
three months we want to we'd like that
any of these candidates it turns out to
be successful try to accelerate the
availability of the these courses you
know so invest even while there's
uncertainty about whether these
candidates will actually turn out to be
effective in the phase three trial tests
why is that that's because you can
imagine that strategy is going to
provide the best chance of accelerating
the availability of this capacity by say
three or six months and even though some
of this might be wasted as well we'll
get to because you invest in capacity
and the candidate doesn't turn out I
mean you know the probability of success
is something like between 10 and 30% for
for these even promising candidates so
this is this is where things get
unprecedented the the benefits are so
large that it suggests this rather
unprecedented investment where you don't
wait you invest early any invest at this
large scale and we can get into the
details about you know push versus pull
funding I'm not sure if the the audience
knows those terms we can define those
terms later I really want to go through
the push and the pull many questions so
from the political economy standpoint I
think it's I see the logic but if you
tell that we will spend let's say 50
billion built capacity built factories
invest in machinery that will never be
used true it sounds like a small number
a small share of GDP but thinking about
you know supporting doctor supporting
nurses a building intensive care units
so even if we stay within let's say
treatments still it looks like a
foregone yeah that's a good point I mean
the critique actually I'm talking to
friends here about your war and this is
immediately where I guess people are
immediately going to the negatives yeah
it's I mean in a sense if you look at
the benefits here
you know the benefits are just so large
that it Dwarfs any of these costs no
you're right that we should think
holistically about all of the different
technologies and in fact our little
group we have a name let me just go back
a couple slides we call our group
accelerating HT so we've we have a
website and we've given ourselves a name
the HT stands for health technology so
we're thinking more holistically not
just about vaccines but about treatments
about testing about maybe advances and
how clinical trials are conducted so I
agree it it shouldn't be an either/or
proposition certainly there should be
tremendous investment in treatments the
the health systems we need to be an
investing in those but you know if you
think about how much is spent on health
you know what's the percentage of a
country's GDP spent on health here we're
talking about a very tiny fraction of
overall health spending and you know in
a sense and people are going to be
reluctant to go back to their ordinary
lives we think until a vaccine is really
kind of in a sense curious though here's
the whole pandemic can you elaborate on
the push and pull sure let me let me go
back to that so by you know push and
pull by push we're talking about just
you know in general funding for a
project where what you do is you audit
the company's books the company says you
know here's how much we spent and it's
kind of a cost plus funding so this
would be you know we spent say 20
million dollars on clinical trials and
then here are receipts for what it cost
us to say acquire this capacity and then
you know you send the bill to the funder
and then the funder pays that so we're
saying is that actually push funding if
you can pull it off if you can actually
do that accounting which is sometimes in
question then that's actually a very
efficient way to move money to firms
and so we're saying in a sense do as
much of that as possible you want to
leave firms with a little bit of skin in
the game so here we're advocating 15% of
course that number is you know we're not
sure what the exact optimal number is
but 15 percent seems sufficient provides
firms with some skin and game beckons
and incentives to actually make
intelligent investments and not just
have some you know fly-by-night firms
say hey we got a good idea they have to
put in a you know substantial amount of
money in themselves and so some of the
incentives that are coming from what's
called pull funding so 15% of the
funding would be from pull and that's
basically the payment that would be made
for the successful candidate and what
that's going to provide is it's going to
provide incentives to you know do
intelligent investment but that's
directed toward a successful product but
also instead of my speed because if
there are several firms that might be
the ultimate candidate you know if
you're first in and you have the most
successful product then you're going to
get the the pole funding so it turns out
that the the pull funding and then is
you know the payment for the actual
product that that gets produced
but that pull funding we're gonna try
we're making it thinking about making it
available to firms only if they're say
investing the the capacity that this is
this is an extraordinary capacity at
this large capacity amount that we're
envisioning for you know a global
vaccination campaign but pull funding
can it is expensive because you know
that's only paid conditional on success
and so you know yours has to be the best
of the candidates ultimately if they're
successful of course as we were saying
there's sometimes only a you know 10 to
30% probability of success so even if
you're only risking 15% of the
investment cost if it's only paying off
you know one-fifth of the time you have
to be promised a lot of money at the end
for a successful product so you can
structure this pull funding in various
ways one way to structure it as you pay
a lot for the initial doses and then but
then you build in that that's kind of
the reward and then have a sort of the
lower tail price so closer to marginal
cost pricing and that way you can both
reward the firm but then not get this
distortion from you know to high prices
that way you can get you know the
marginal consumer can also afford the
vaccine ultimately you know as as the
pandemic unfolds well I know that one of
your go big was the first then you also
have a globally active mindset and
actually having I have to fly from
Boston to Europe for this pandemic there
is actually a lot of transatlantic I
would say debate even within Europe if
the vaccine let's say Germany or the UK
would be preferential treatments and we
should actually Mamie country or a few
countries to be very selfish in the
distribution of facemasks ICU equipment
so can you please detail how you have
been thinking about this issue sure but
let's jump to the slide here you know
we're talking about the the gains from
international cooperation and we can get
into to some of the ideas here so you
know this is this is for you can
probably think of several more on your
own I think one of the probably the
biggest in my view is the insurance
value of exploring many candidates right
so if each country explores it's just
it's a single national champion with its
pharmaceutical manufacturer that's
located within its its borders that
gives the the country with a you know in
the soccer analogy one shot on goal
whereas it might be optimal to have as
we're talking about 15 or 20 shots on
goal so what you'd rather do is in a
sense buy insurance
four and get a piece of many shots and
go why is that it has to do in part with
the fact that vaccinating your
vulnerable population is a lot of the
value and vaccinations is with the
vulnerable populations these are people
who experience the greatest mortality
risk these would be the you know the the
aged population and it's also you know
the people most exposed to the to the
virus so this would be health care
workers so a lot of the benefits from
vaccinating people in the country are
concentrated in a small number of people
so that means that what you'd rather do
is get you know an option on by you know
more certain option I'm vaccinating your
vulnerable population then you would say
a much less certain so if you just have
a single national champion you know a
ten to thirty percent chance that this
will work out maybe you can take them
the vaccine for all your people but a
lot of the benefits are concentrated in
the vulnerable population so pooling the
risk and this insurance value I think is
a huge benefit from international
cooperation there are other issues too
that if as a international collaboration
you can rather than sort of scattershot
picking different candidates which might
not be well coordinated you can actually
optimize the candidate portfolio you can
choose some that are actually have in a
sense aren't all in the same platform
and so there's some negative correlation
why have five successful candidates you
know with a very small chance that are
all on the same platform you know spread
out the investment across multiple
multiple candidates that actually
maximizes the chance of getting a
success according to our program if you
get a success invested at that large
capacity scale can actually quickly
vaccinate the world but there are other
issues to your international supply
chain bottlenecks that even if the
manufacturer is actually in the country
of the fill and finished the ultimate
fill and finish might be in a different
country it might be that certain inputs
like an adjuvant you might need from say
the UK even though the the actual
vaccine is being produced in the US and
so it's really an international supply
chain that we're talking
here and international collaboration can
actually potentially help free these
bottlenecks and another issue is to that
you can avoid a bidding Laura for all
the different countries are trying to
procure from themselves doesn't it make
sense to sort of collaborate at the
beginning this is not trying to
necessarily we're talking about a large
program so it will be lucrative to firms
but it would avoid sort of wasteful
bidding more ex-post
but your question was but that's the
gain so kind of hints at why it would be
that country should collaborate rather
than compete but I think the big answer
to question is related to our program
kind of a maybe not an unanticipated
consequence but a nice side a benefit or
side effect of this huge capacity we're
advocating is that it really solves this
or prisoner's dilemma a problem that
people are are putting forward this
competition and the point is that you
know it might be that any country
individually if they're just talking
about their single national champion
they might have an incentive to fund
capacity to vaccinate their own
population but we're advocating actually
something closer to the world population
and in short order right so we're not
saying capacity sufficient to vaccinate
the world population in two years we're
talking about you know within months and
so there's a trade-off between capacity
and time the bigger the capacity the
more quickly you know if you have twice
as large a capacity you can actually
vaccinate the world twice as fast so a
huge capacity that we're advocating
actually it goes a long way towards
solving this problem of of competing to
be first in line basically with this
huge capacity every country's vulnerable
population could be vaccinated within
short or within a month or two so
there's no delay there and in fact it's
the large capacity we're advocating as
many other countries even others the the
not vulnerable population will start
being vaccinated with very little delay
maybe a couple months but that means
there's less competition to be first in
line let's say though that you know the
you know it's hard for the country you
know say Greece its invented in Greece
it's hard for Greece
to commit not to say vaccinating all of
its citizens first let's take a bigger
country let's take the US we've done
some analysis that suggests that even if
the USA said look you know we sign this
international agreement we said we'd
share it all the vulnerable people get
vaccinated first before our non
vulnerable citizens get fascinated
suppose the u.s. reneged on that
agreement and said note we're going to
take all of the first units to vaccinate
our own people I mean it might slow down
the rollout to everybody else by a week
or two you know if at the large
capacities are talking about you know
1.5 billion doses in you know two month
period so there's there's really it's
less of a problem it's it's more of a
second order problem really which you
know in a sense if we say spend a month
trying to refine the programs to avoid
this vaccine nationalism that actually
would be a bigger cost than just saying
okay we recognize that whatever country
does the development it has a
manufacturing you know okay they're
first in line they can vaccinate
everybody and then it gets rolled out to
the rest of the countries probably that
that's that would be a lower cost to the
world I think so I know that we're
running out of time but we have here at
the Willard Institute Business
Development they actually are found or
stomach more in will funders of long the
planet teacher so many things about our
beautiful planet so we are passionate
about how businesses can can be part of
the solution rather than part of the
problem as it's typically for a general
perceived in Africa or in many other
low-income coverage many would say in
kind in here this is an incentive scheme
that would support pharmaceutical
companies which come to realize that you
know it's not they have the best brand
name and to people so what do you think
is going to be the role of businesses
helping in the coffered crisis yes you
know that that maybe go to this slide I
think that the role of businesses is
vital here as I hinted at in in the
first couple of minutes of our talk
you know if there's just not time to
have
jeez you know inventing a whole vaccine
industry it's these are a lot of the big
players are commercial manufacturers and
you know they're going to be among the
promising candidates here and especially
we talked about scaling up capacity they
have you know just a lot of experience
and probably the biggest capacities and
the biggest the most experienced in
developing global supply chains so it
seems like a scheme that a mechanism
that doesn't involve the commercial
manufacturers and commercial
pharmaceutical firms is not going to be
as successful you know it's I so markets
and commercial firms are going to be
necessary here you know the special
nature of vaccines means that you can't
just say the market is going to solve
this on its own and that in the special
nature of this pandemic as well so
vaccines are just an unusual product you
know there's with economist called
externalities so you know the
vaccination helps the herd as much as it
helps the individual and a lot of the
consumer benefit may not be captured by
the firm and so you know government's
realize this and so the markets confused
you know often the government's by
vaccines on behalf of the citizens and
and also agencies and insurers and you
know very few individuals go out and buy
vaccines and you know check themselves
in their arms with the vaccine so that
we already have long experience with
government involvement here just the
unprecedented need for size and speed
means that you know commercial
manufacturers they will have an
incentive to invest but just not at the
scale and the speed that that we'd like
so there's gonna have to be some shaping
here there's have to be some in cinemas
ation there's gonna have to be a
collaboration really between world
governments and private industry here
and and neither one and is the enemy of
the other there needs to be
collaboration here Chris thank you very
much for taking the time you're busy
changing the world for better so when
some how busy you Marc
well I said it's my pleasure happy to
talk about a passion of mine and let's
let's hope that get this vaccine but a
true pressure to participate
she's you mission passion next time to
talk about the basketball that's right
know the best possible players Greek
that's right and people can't see
because we're seated here but we're both
over six foot three so we used to play
basketball together thank you
[Music]
you

---

### The impact of COVID-19 in West Africa | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toE6pZxd9PU

Transcrição não disponível

---

### What is the impact of COVID-19 on women’s participation in the workforce? | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9o8N3q7R25M

Idioma: en

[Music]
so welcome to the Willard Institute
kovat 19 series today we are pleased and
honored very happy to welcome to our
series Matias there to talk about some
of his very recent and publicly research
about the effects of code 19 on gender
equality as it and fools and perhaps
discuss also about the medium term
implications well material isn't need
much of an introduction he has been one
of the I would say the founders of this
very exciting search of research for the
research a family economics before being
married and before having kids I would
be clear about this literature then I
realize that the deep insights and not
only that my peers has written some
great papers for example about
pre-industrial Europe developed some
very cool papers from macro economics
and money exchange so most recently of
today is it also let me just mention his
ongoing work with ability to devotee on
parenting styles and how inequality
affects the way we raise our kids
education so materials thanks a lot for
taking the time and we understand that
you are very busy writing papers topical
about the crisis writing other very
interesting papers you know editing a
journal it's all very time-consuming so
I know that you have been working with
Michelle turtles and various other
authors from the gender implications of
code ninety and just briefly tell us
about what you find what kind of data
you use and what are their tentacles yes
so thanks for having me I'm very happy
to be here I should add in addition to
what you've mentioned of course I have a
ton of childcare to do you know one of
the characteristics of the crisis is we
spend now different order of magnitude
on on time on child care and home
schooling and that is you know one of
the aspects that met us for us but also
know that is one of the reasons why
gender really plays a big role in this
crisis and so Michelle I have done some
work on family economics as it relates
to macroeconomics we argue that family
decision-making actually is quite
important in
macroeconomic questions too and
recessions are a good example of this
now and so what really struck us is the
contrast between what we're going
through right now they covered 19
recession we call it sometimes be great
to lock down recession because this lock
down is really you know why we have this
downturn the contrast of this crisis was
a huge revision cycles that we had
previously
and the interesting observation there is
that earlier business cycles are what
sometimes referred to as a man sessions
maybe they hit a man and not more than
they do women now if you look for
example at the financial crisis 2007 to
2009 many more men the driven lost their
job so male unemployment went up by a
lot more than the Bruins unemployment
and this has to do with the fact that
many men work in sectors like
construction and manufacturing that go
down a lot in the usual recession and
some women you know work in many women
work in safer sectors like the public
sector or education and also some women
are more flexible in the labor supply so
you even have some women joining the
labor force in a recession to make up
for the job loss of their of their
husband and so you see very different
behavior of male and female labor
markets during typical recessions now
what struck us from the start is that
this time it's likely to be very
different for really two different but
equally important reasons when one is
sector of employment so I mentioned that
men work often in construction for
example now in this recession these
sectors most affected are very different
from a usual recession the the largest
employment losses for example are in
restaurants and hotels and hospitality
which are all sectors which are very
high in women's employment that fraction
of the workers there are women so that's
the first reason that we see a very
different impact and the second reason
is what I mentioned at the very
beginning childcare requirements are
much higher schools are closed stake
hairs are closed
in addition grandparents for example are
also not available because not really
supposed to expose older people to the
terms of your children at this time so
it's really down to the parents and that
often means a woman more than men know
to some extent because there's many more
single moms than single dads
but also because among couples raising
kids together women still provide the
majority of the childcare and in the
majority of cases and this led us to
expect that this would be very different
recessions which has implications for
what happens during the crisis but also
what we should expect at during the
recovery so we started working on this
actually a couple of months ago at that
point mainly based on pre crisis daters
we were just documenting the division of
child care among couples we were
documenting who works in which sectors
for example are the more women or men in
critical sectors are there more women or
men who have jobs we can telecommute and
you can work from home during the crisis
you know that basis we've made this
prediction that women will be more
affected because now we're into the
crisis we can already see that these
things you know have turned out the way
we expected so for example in the latest
US unemployment report we see that
women's unemployment has gone to 16 to
more than 16 percent so historical high
man's unemployment only to 13 percent so
it is a much bigger crisis for women
than for men in the labor market and
it's really opposite of what you see in
a usual recession from the US and we
expect similar patterns I guess in the
United Kingdom Germany right so together
we have started looking at a number of
countries that we have you know most
recent work cite some surveys from the
UK from Germany we also work a lot with
the Dutch data which has very high
frequency data where you can really get
a detailed look at a time use inside the
family the basic thing that we see is
that the the structure looks very
similar across countries now so we see
in all the places we looked at that
women are highly affected with the one
with the one provision that it does
matter what policies these countries
have in terms of employment protection
you know so Germany is an example where
there is this concept of courts abide
where essentially the the government
pays firms to keep
officially on the payroll but actually
the government takes over most of the
wages so you don't we see you see people
working less but they're still a
formerly employed by their former
employer so the official unemployment
doesn't go up as much so in Germany you
see a lot lower unemployment in terms of
levels and also because of this
protection you see less of a difference
between the women of the man but the UK
for example looks very similar to the
ass at least as far as we can tell from
the initial survey it's coming out but
let me follow up on this do you think
this is simply a measure of law
legalistic because there is at least the
expectation in the equation of the UK
you know those people who know they will
quickly behind this be reemployed
you know I think surveys show that many
workers have an expectation that they
will be picked up again and it is
certainly possible that this will happen
faster or at least at a higher frequency
compared to usual recession because some
business is really just shut down
temporarily as you physically can't work
and so for sure some workers will will
go back and I think it's important to
recognize first of all that the crisis
might not be that short-lived
to some extent because the medical
crisis it's not that short-lived there
we are still far away from having a
vaccine or like a real solution to this
to this crisis and in addition to the
medical no epidemic aspect there's also
this this feature that a downward can be
self-reinforcing like you have people
losing income now that means they have
to reduce their the expenses they have
to reduce the demand for other goods and
that can reinforce this crisis beyond
the initial shock know and so it's I
think the optimism that this would be a
very fast recovery has been diminished
and in recent
and so I think many economists now do
expect this will drag out longer than we
initially thought some extent because of
the the actual epidemic still going on
but in addition because the demand
declining really transmits the sector
the shock to other sectors that didn't
really have the direct impact yeah so
since you mentioned this a very I know
that the German government had also used
a similar scheme back in two thousand
seven thousand nine which was some
legislation I think a forward by
shredder but thinking more now about
emerging markets or even the content of
the European periphery where they don't
have such much fiscal space what they
have you considered for example
expanding your analysis more to country
like Turkey like Mexico Brazil Africa
generally yes we have not much yet but
but we're certainly thinking about it
and observing what is going on because
the situation really does vary quite a
bit depending on you know what the
states for example of a division of
labor is within couples you know so if
you if you go to middle-income countries
that you mentioned Brazil and Turkey
you're kind of you know halfway to the
point where were the richest countries
are today in the sense that there is now
a fairly high labor force participation
of women you know so these effects we
see here that you see women being unable
to work because of the crisis is also
there and it's likely to have the same
unequal effects women and men because of
the reason of China that these schools
are that the schools are shut down at
the same time some of these country as
you say don't have the same fiscal space
to to be able to provide say income
replacement during a prolonged shutdown
they may not also have the same ability
to isolate you know so if you not in
middle income comes but if you go then
further to developing countries say in
Africa
just the physical isolation is more
difficult you know if you live for
example with an extended family and it's
just not that easy to put everybody in a
separate space and so so these guys do
face different trade-offs now and in in
rich countries I think most people agree
that economists also agree that
addressing the pandemic as much as you
can by shutting shutting things down as
long as you have to is the right
approach it is not completely obvious
that if you go to developing countries
the answer is always going to be exactly
the same to some extent because
shutdowns are going to be less effective
given the lack of physical separation
and also because of the you know lack of
insurance system making the economic
shock harder to to cushion in those
places so let's think about more about
the medium term I know that economics
especially microeconomics and we're not
Tory was bad in forecasting but you know
a positive view would be an optimistic
agrees we would be okay fine at some
point sooner or later we'll be back at
some trend and then you know this gender
inequality gradually the gap go down you
share this fuel so it's an interesting
question because we actually argue that
there is forces that really work in two
completely opposite directions and we
think they are both important and I
think they will ultimately play a role
at a different time scale because even
though we may be not that great at
forecasting aggregates of predicting
crisis but we do know not about the
micro level implications of recessions
it's very clear from existing work in
macro and also labor economics and
losing a job in a recession in
particular can have a very persistent
scaring effect on your labour market
opportunities especially the longer the
crisis lasts if you lose your job now
you lose experience you will often not
be able to go back to the same kind of
position the same in the step of the
career ladder you were at before and we
saw after the financial crisis for
example that the gender wage gap
narrowed a little bit in the years after
the United States but it's very much
consistent with the fact that the man
lost more
and so the men had a bigger impact on
their labour market prospects and women
and that made the gap between man and
women shrink and for the same reason
another way would bring a crisis for
women than man in the medium term if you
think the next 2-3 years almost
inevitably now there will be many women
who will have a persistent loss in their
earnings even after the crisis is over
and it will put pressure upward pressure
on a larger gap between women and men so
there is some reason for for pessimism
you know if you think about this
prospect for gender equality in the
labor market but you can also go beyond
this in a medium term and think about
what are really the deeper causes of the
gender gap now why is it the first place
that we have you know like a 20% gap
between a women's and men's pay in the
economy and recent research has really
pointed out that the biggest reason
today maybe not four years ago but today
has to do with child care now you see a
very small gender gap or for younger
workers before they have families before
they have children but once couples have
children you see the Reubens earnings
start to stagnate whereas the father's
you know their earnings they keep going
up and that reflects that there's still
a lot of inequality in childcare so even
among couples who both work full time
you see that in the majority of cases
the women do the largest share of work
in the u.s. about forty percent more
than the man do and they also are having
a larger share of the flexibility that's
required no so we have a sick child at
home who's going to take a day off to be
home usually it's a mother so it has to
do with the flexibility of combining
careers with family obligations and so
what we argue is in this crisis we
actually likely to see changes that will
ultimately benefit families and will
ultimately benefit women more because
they are now having the majority of
these responsibilities it's the one you
know very good example is work
flexibility so now we have all
transition to doing things from home
we've all transition to doing meetings
on unzoom
just academia but all kinds of employers
and inevitably a lot of this will stay
these employers learn how to use these
tools they realize that by having people
work from home you can still keep things
going but you save the rent for the
office so it is almost inevitable that
we're going to have more work
flexibility across the board after this
crisis because of the shock and we can
already see in the pre-crisis data if
you look at couples by bread that you
can work from home or not you can see
that couples who can work from home with
more flexibility already today have a
more equitable distribution of childcare
so so among couples who both can work
from home and have some flexibility it's
a much more even distribution of who
takes care of the kids compared to other
couples and so if this now expands to
more of the economy we will expect and I
think we will see that some of these
persistent gender gaps will actually
decline as a result of the saga I
sympathize with that because now that we
have moved to zoom you know my wife
keeps reminding me that I have to do the
raining so my last question is the
Institute actually we like to think that
business could be at least part of the
solution
many of our scholars say work in
low-income countries generally in Africa
businesses consider to be part of the
problem very rarely part of the solution
so do you see any loan for business
positively or preventing negative 130
years to come yes so I mean what we just
talked about I think is a very good
example you know having more flexibility
for combining combining work and family
obligations it's going to be very
important now more work from home is a
big part of that and the more general
issue is what you might call work
culture you know what are the
expectations of different types of
workers you know what in one challenge
you have is that in many career
positions if you become an executive or
mortally become you know a professor but
also there's still an expectation that
you are supposed to be fully devoted to
your work and almost pretend as if you
didn't have children it's a so many
businesses have this thing that just
being if you office long hours you know
in the evening and then going to drinks
with with colleagues is part of what's
expected of you know it's a it is a very
pronounced for example in places like
Japan where it's almost universal if you
work for a big corporation but we have
some of this still here in in other
countries and it doesn't have to be this
way no it's completely possible to do
good work and contribute to your
business while also sometimes you know
leaving at 4:00 p.m. because you have to
you know take care of your children in
one way or the other you can see for
example in countries that today have
more than equality already like like
like skitty navier-- there it's the norm
is a bit different you know that it's
even for people in career positions it
is accepted to leave sometimes a bit
earlier because you have other things to
do and so if we have a bit of a cultural
shift so that firms both offer more
opportunities to work from home more
opportunities for being flexible in your
time use but also change a bit this
culture but these expectations of the of
the works in the career track that would
actually be very helpful because there
is a big reason that leads to gender
inequality today yeah I appreciate your
view so Matias thank you very much for
taking the time and being with us I have
a last request since I find your war
with the British reboot is so exciting
and I saw that you launched a blog about
that I have studied among all of your
papers with both yours and completes you
this is the part I have studied the most
about what to do with the kids during
the summer time I will kindly ask you or
ability to join us again sometime in
June to talk us about this very
interesting work thanks a lot for me
very exotic thank you very much thank
you
you
[Music]
you

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### Moving from CSR to responsible business | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2Bgpksg0B_g

Transcrição não disponível

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### UK household debt before and after the crisis | Wheeler Institute | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CK9bHF4ZA_Y

Transcrição não disponível

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### Grow the Pie: How Great Companies Deliver Both Purpose and Profit | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2PyoUv_7Bxg

Idioma: en

[Music]
so welcome to the business for business
and development today we are after
[Music]
taking the time absolutely so the
traditional view of finance is that the
value that a company creates is given by
a PI that PI is fixed and we can
distribute that either to investors in
the form of profits or society in the
form of say wages to workers or taxes to
government or stewardship of the
environment and often we think that the
role of a business is to maximize
profits and we do that by reducing the
slices given to everybody else so in an
economic model you pay the workers as
little as possible and you will pollute
the environment if indeed that's that's
good for you and that's an the idea that
anything we give to others is taken away
from profits but why the title is called
grow the pie is that it suggests that if
or to invest in society so pay workers
more than you need to treat them better
invest in reducing your carbon footprint
that doesn't reduce profits to shoulders
it in fact grows the pie and then means
that shareholders are better off so I
think the implications are important
because often when we think about
responsibility ceos often implement that
to the minimum possible so they might
sign some great statements or put things
on the website but what this suggests is
that it's in company's own interests to
take responsibility very seriously so
it's not just worthy or a luxury even in
a crisis like this it could be something
which is fundamental to the success of a
business seems very different from the
standard I think view I think it's
ability to Milton Friedman but have some
wrong here that companies need to have a
social purpose and this is our purpose
is to maximize profits for the benefit
of shareholders in value second Jack
works
the legendary CEO so this is interesting
because the Friedman quote that you
refer to Ilyas has been really popular
came out in 1970 50 years ago and it
said the social responsibility of
business is to increase profits and so
some people might say why my book is a
massive overturning of Friedman actually
it's not because I think the Friedman
quote is sometimes misinterpreted so why
he argues that businesses should
completely focus on profits it's not
because sort of he's evil and thinking
society doesn't matter
it's instead the argument is that by
maximizing profits you will be forced to
take care of society so you need to
treat your work as well otherwise they
will leave you can't pollute the
environment or your brand will be hurt
and you want to give great products to
to customers
so he was saying if you just focus on
profits then everything else will fall
into place but so why I'd still go
beyond Friedman is that he would be
right in a world of complete certainty
so a company thinking
do I want to improve employee well-being
do I want to develop products that
address sort of third world diseases
they would do some calculation and they
would say well the benefits are X the
costs are Y and we're going to go ahead
and do that but in today's world right
there's a lot of uncertainty so there's
many things many investments
particularly in society that companies
would not do if there was a purely
instrumental motivation so what the book
suggests and it's based on a lot of
evidence is that if companies do things
for intrinsic reasons so they are first
motivated by solving social problems
even if there's not a clear route to
profit unexpected unexpectedly those
solutions to social problems might end
up being monetized or leading to
employee engagement even if the
motivation for doing this yes I think
these are companies which are first
driven by solving social problems so why
the book is called grow the pie is is
often we think about responsibility as
splitting the point Liso paying fair tax
paying fair wages not polluting the
environment so we can characterize that
as do no harm but I'm saying that
responsibility goes further than that
it's actively doing good by trying to
solve social problems so one example I
give is is Vodafone so many people
heralded Vodafone as a responsible
company because they released this tax
transparency report showing how much tax
they were paying to governments
worldwide but I would say that's about
doing not doing harm not cheating your
tax that's not about actually doing good
I think the best thing that Vodafone did
was in 2007 helped by Nick Hughes his
company executive fellow at the wheeler
Institute they launched
paisa which is a mobile money service in
Kenya which provided Financial Inclusion
to hundreds of thousands of of Kenyans
and there was evidence from professors
at MIT that that improved the life
LaHood's it lifted 200,000 households
out of poverty and many of them were
headed up by women so why did they
launch that it wasn't to make money it
was to solve this social problem of
financial inclusion but ultimately
Vodafone was eventually able to monetize
that after the fact and so they ended up
being profitable as well as responsible
to society
also there is a brother I guess what I
enjoy with your work is that you know
coming from finance you discuss about
these issues that are very important for
example they touch this big issue of
growing inequality in societies and we
see what's happening on the stage of
that so I remember in the old days that
many people you know would complain
about executive compensation so how do
you think this apply now in the years to
come especially also in light of mine
yes certainly inequality is an important
issue however I think that some of the
public debate about it is focusing on on
the wrong factors so often when we think
about pay fairness we'll look at the pay
ratio between the CEO and the average
worker thinking about a high ratio is
the CEO is being paid at the expense of
everybody else but again that's based on
the pie the fixed pie mentality than
anything that you give to the CEO is
taking away from everybody else when in
fact a CEO could be well-paid as a
byproduct of growing the pie and making
the company successful so one example is
Disney so last year there was a lot of
controversy because Bob I who was being
paid 66 million dollars which was I
think about sometimes the average worker
but that high pay wasn't stealing from
everybody else it was just because
Disney had been a really successful
company
so since his tenure the stock price had
increased by six hundred percent whereas
the market had gone up by 150 and always
a tweener you're concerned not only with
shareholders but society but he'd also
created 70,000 jobs so the reason why he
was well rewarded was because the
company was really successful and Fair
Pay means that if the company's
successful you get rewarded and if it's
not successful you don't so that was the
byproduct of creating value rather then
caused by extracting value from
everybody else so I think what we want
to look at is our CEO is actively
creating value through innovation
through solving so
problems not so much the ratio of pay
now inequality still matters but I think
that the best way to achieve this is
through government policy for example
there is high pay and CEOs but there's
high pay in virtually anything scalable
nowaday so top lawyers and hedge funds
and bankers and so on can get a lot of
money and I think this problem is quite
pervasive in a global economy
anybody with something scalable it's
gonna be well rewarded but that's why
things such as income taxes and that
would address this yes I think one one
important dimension is the treatment of
workers
so there's many stakeholders to a
company there's the environment and
suppliers and customers but I think
workers are really important because of
the human element that you mention and
the fact that this affects inequality so
you might think well a company should be
profitable through working their
employees as hard as possible through
paying them as little as possible and if
indeed you think about perhaps the most
successful management innovation in the
20th century was the assembly line which
force workers to keep up with the pace
of production again thinking good
management is squeezing as much out of
cost as possible out of your resources
but in fact one of my own studies looked
at 28 years of data to link how you
treat your workers to long-term
shareholder returns and one of the
important things is to get around this
correlation causation issue if you treat
your workers better do you do better or
is it once you're doing well you can now
treat your workers better but the
evidence suggests it's the former going
above and beyond and how you treat your
workers does pay off in terms of long
term returns and I think this matters
particularly now in terms of the crisis
why
when we want to think about our our work
as a luxury do we want to just get rid
of them when actually some of the
evidence and some of the examples that
I've given and were that companies that
actually tried to minimize the losses to
workers are actually doing better in the
long term so one example from the last
financial crisis was the manufacturer
barry-wehmiller so they had just
suffered a huge loss of orders they
needed to save I believe it was 10
million dollars normally this case swipe
the ball gets together and they choose
which workers to fire however what they
wanted to do was to share the load
equally so everybody from secretary to
CEO had to take 4 weeks of unpaid leave
a furlough and also some workers
volunteer to take double loads so that
their colleagues who were more
financially constrained didn't have to
say surprisingly not a single worker had
to be fired and indent indeed they ended
up saving 20 million dollars and not
only do they fly this this are unpaid
leave but they also try to put on
courses at their corporate university to
make sure that that time was used for
doctorly so that was just a shift in
thinking help we all bear the
consequences of that's really bad
financial crisis equally rather than
thinking well what could we expect from
businesses in light of so what is the
role of business you rightly point out
have a shift in view which have been
gradual but I think any business leader
should ask herself the question what is
in my hand so what I mean by that are
what resources does my company have and
how can i deploy them to solve social
problems through innovation and why is
that interesting is again the
traditional view of responsibility is to
split the pie fairly so in a crisis I'm
going to give a hundred million euros of
food and sanitizer if I'm Unilever I'm
going
keep a my work is if I'm win resort so
that's splitting the pie fairly to make
sure that workers are not being
mistreated but not every company can do
that so if you're not in the food and
sanitizer industry and you don't have
anything to give or if you can't keep
paying your workers because your
business is taken here so the idea of
what's in my hand is to think not about
my splitting but pie growing at an
innovation and so that has led to some
unrelated companies doing some great
things so it could be your LVMH and your
making perfume but what is in my hand is
the ability to make alcohol I can use
the alcohol for sanitizer or you could
be Ford and you're changing your airbag
material to make masks you could be
burglary or making downs or you could be
an Apple and Google and you're normally
rivals but you think well let's get
together and devise these contact
tracing systems
so obviously the crisis has been a
massive negative shot but if there's one
silver lining that comes out of it it's
to sort of change our view of
responsibility as about being fair
splitting of the pie to actively growing
the pie through innovation I think
that's something that all business can
think about is what are the resources
which through being creative and
innovative we can redeploy to solve
social problems Pingala forever and ever
but we want also people to get the book
growing the pie thanks for taking the
time and being with us we hope that we
do a much more engaging event being
together hopefully in the fall thank you
very much
actually it's really enjoyed it
[Music]
you

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### Responding to COVID-19 in developing countries | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i7IdAWpJYc4

Idioma: en

[Music]
welcome everyone to London Business
School who lead Institute for business
and development covered 19 series today
we are very pleased and happy and
honored to have with us mushrik
Obara from the Yale University which
week is professor of economics with
concurrent appointments at Yale School
of Management
in the Department of Economics which
week has been doing very interesting
work actually on a plethora of relevant
issues rural-urban migration gender
issues the role of democracy on policies
in many developing countries she does
work not mistaken a low income frontier
and emerging market zeal and we speak
thanks a lot for taking the time to be
with us today we're really happy to have
you here with us and discuss some of
your very topical research about covered
90 yeah thanks very much for having me
this is my pleasure
yeah so my first question is I know that
you have been working on social
distancing policies in developing
countries and frontier economies in the
Cova 19 series of the Gulu Institute we
had their colleague and regularity who's
been thinking optimal social distancing
testing but there are big differences
between industrial countries and such as
Bangladesh for example there was a bit
about the similarities the differences
and the challenges yeah for sure
so so I started thinking and working
about this a few weeks ago and Cove it
was hitting and what prompted me is that
you know unlike say zika ebola these
other viruses that that affect us in the
last few years this was unusual in that
it started in rich countries in europe
north america they were hit early and so
a lot of the lessons we were hearing
about we're all coming from rich
countries because you know as you can
imagine if something happens in the
United States or in Western Europe that
captures the international media's
attention and it sucks up all the oxygen
in the room and then what happened with
as the virus and travel I usually
through migrants down to the global
south so those countries had to adopt
some
policies and response but it was very
difficult to them to adopt anything that
looks different from the ones from rich
countries it's difficult because you
know regardless of what decision you
make regarding social distancing whether
it's you know lockdowns where it's you
know allowing the economy to operate
right either decision will cost a lot of
lives and politically it's very
difficult for you to make a decision
that looks different from what the
United States was doing and it's costing
lights right and so that prompted me to
think about it should we be following
the exact same policy is in poor
countries or should we be adapting them
in some way right and the way we thought
about doing it is you know there was
this really influential model in the
Imperial College model that was
influential in the u.s. right my thought
was okay let's just add some economics
to this and put the developing country
number isn't it and let's see if you get
a different answer right and and the
answer is it yes you do definitely get a
very different answer and let me just
show you a little bit about exactly why
you get the difference so these are the
papers of Eros and there are three key
differences that I want to point out
okay some one is that the demographic
structure of low income countries is
very different than high income
countries age distributions are very
different so for example on the Left
what you see is a distribution of people
about the age of 65 and low income up
here high in upper income over there and
you have a six-fold difference so the
elderly share of the population is six
times higher in rich countries and
that's an enormous difference and we
know that the virus affects the elderly
differently that it affects you that's
one one difference and the second one is
that remember we were hearing about this
they're flattening the curve right we're
trying to flatten the curve to keep it
under the health care capacity of the
country and the problem is that if
you're in rural Bangladesh and there are
no ventilators right the health care
capacity line is very very low right
it's difficult for us to get any extra
live saved right just by delaying
infections because if they're not say
there no ventilators now or three months
later by delaying infections
we're not going to gain as much and so
then giving these two differences where
the benefits are lower right you have to
think about how they compare to the cost
of imposing social distancing because
social distancing else also economic
distancing and for that we started
collecting data immediately about what
the economic portions of the cost might
be and what you observe is you know so
here the idea was let's take some
samples where we have been collecting
data because I'm a developer columnist I
do a lot of primary data collection that
like my crystal work we had been we had
the examples in Bangladesh and Nepal so
people in rural Bangladesh and so we
continued through phone surveys to ask
them questions immediately after the
lockdown so here I'm showing you data
from the call right here's what economic
activity looks like across seasons in
the pub when they were trapped between
September and January of this year right
and then here's the log down in here's
what happens right after lockdown and
there's a huge drop even relative to
sort of real you know the low seasons in
their cultural crop cycle okay and this
also leads to food insecurity so now and
the food insecurity like people worried
about not having enough food that
reaches like the lean season level so as
people who know about agrarian rural
economies know that there are some
pre-harvest lean periods right where
there's widespread hunger and that's
what we're seeing so now the problem is
that this is during the harvest that
nipple is experiencing this right so
come lean season in July August
September I shudder to think about what
might happen and so because of that we
we do think the costs and benefits are
different for those three reasons and
therefore our policy let you know
strategies might want what we might want
to adapt it to fit the realities of any
given country and so I think what you
mentioned is very interesting because
typically we have this tendency to
extrapolate from the settings of some
countries to others so for example we
had with us and then one second last
week describing West Africa where so far
we don't see any deaths
incidents and of course people turn very
quickly to generalize oh they don't take
stress of this and sit there I think
what is really interesting from your
work is that given the stark differences
you can really easily see how much an
optimal always in the UK is way
different and also they you know the
implementation capacity in these
different countries are also different I
mean it's it's one thing to just just
say that we're gonna follow the policy
but actually enforcing the policy
implementing is going to be the
capacities gonna be very different in
West Africa versus ins outdated
reversers US or UK or Israel or South
Korea or China in the US and China is
actually gonna be different in this
regard as well and and and they're you
know you have to then also in terms of
what academics can contribute you have
to worry about like these models they
epidemiological models that we've been
reliant on in the US and UK
you can't just transfer these models
over to four countries without adding
some behavior to it without adding some
economics to it so why do we get
economics I just gave you
maybe those answers you know using the
Nepal data and there's hunger there's
food insecurity those things matter just
as much as like sort of a virus disease
risk and why do you want to add behavior
to it because if you implement a policy
and it turns out in rural areas you're
in perfect compliance and we need to
take those into account in order to
devise the optimal strategies so what
the government's doing a more practical
setting so we are now in a place where
you know it's no longer this discussion
that we're having about lock downs or
not right I think we've gone past that
right I think there's widespread
acknowledgement you know it's like a
total lockdown where it says a
free-for-all neither is the right policy
I mean and we need to think about smart
ways of containing disease risk while
limiting or mitigating the risks to
people's economic like this so so now
the the strategy is more about how
to really scale back these lockdowns
okay and for that one of the most
important things I mean not maybe it's
not surprising coming from a social
scientist is that we need data right we
need much better a much more specific
information in in given locations so
maybe I can show you another one other
graph with with some data just to give a
quick picture of what what type of data
might be useful so so why is it that you
know West Africa or Benning as Leonard
must have talked about is different from
India or Bangladesh or gone after that
matter right so it depends on you know
migration link so the in the global
South the virus travel through through
returnees right and it turns out you can
you know having returning presence in
your country or in your jurisdiction
where there is a district subdistrict
it's strongly predictive of whether or
not the disease is going to emerge and
spread there right so based on that
insight we took we basically put
together lots of data from the
Bangladesh government that was already
in administrative records so for example
data from the Civil Aviation Authority
on all the airport disembarkation cards
okay so as people were returning between
December and March of this year right
where did they come from did they come
from Italy Singapore Korea where the
disease was prevalent at the time and
the poster from France or or some other
country where the disease was not as and
based on those card you can also get
people that rest so you can understand
exactly what districts or sub districts
they come from right and so that can
create and that's not the only source of
data you can also get data from a
different government agency unlike where
migration permits have been handed out
in the last 10 years for which country
right and then what we find is that you
know you can create sort of a risk
exposure index right that's kind of
geographically specific as you see here
at the sub district level right and then
you want to validate this measure so we
compared to say Bangla doesn't have
great testing which is one reason this
type of data is important many
developing countries we don't have
extensive testing so you want to
validate this by comparing these
exposure index
and directly compared to where distress
calls are coming from because the bangla
german repurpose one of the you know the
information line hotline into kind of a
covert hotline and then once you do that
you see that you know these migration
exposure index you know correlates quite
well with the distress calls where the
quarantines are happening etc and you
can also of course apply the same
approach across countries right because
each country has an exposure index as
well right that allows you to maybe guy
whu-oh and other multilateral partners
development partners and exactly what
are the countries that might be at
greater risk where the disease is likely
to show up early absolutely yeah and
you'd want to also add this is I was
showing you some international migration
data right you'd want to use exactly
other types of connections so suggest as
an example what we're doing right now
that we have a partnership with the
telecom service providers the mobile
service providers in Bangladesh and they
because they can pick up exactly where a
phone what cell tower is pinging into
they can create like countrywide indices
of sub district or sub district
movements so you'd want to use that type
of data tools the track where the
disease spreads because initially the
international migration tells you where
the disease arrives and then the
internal mobility clothes everywhere
it's so most weak of course how counters
can respond is a function of the state
capacity of the country and for example
how targeted that transfers perhaps
could be and more importantly taking
more macro perspective is the fiscal
space Germany just America cannot be
done so how can we say play out yeah so
for one you know in the analysis I
already described the reason I was
talking about the cost of being in terms
of food security in terms of hunger it's
precisely because if you're a country
that along with a social distancing
guideline you can pass a two trillion
dollar budget that sense we leave to
people right that's a very different
situation than if you're
country where you say social distancing
therefore economic distancing but it's
hard for me to get money to you right
and now we have to think about that
implementation capacity so now we're in
a position where many countries need to
send relief payments quickly to people
who are suffering right and but then you
in order to send relief famous quickly
you need that infrastructure in place
which many countries don't have so just
as an example in the United States you
know last year everybody submitted tax
returns virtually everybody so the
government could eh easily figure out
okay who are in less than $50,000 is
$75,000 and we need to send money to
them and you can send a bank transfer
right now imagine in like in Bangladesh
or many developing countries where where
it maybe 2% to 4% of the population
submits tax returns right how do you
quickly identify who needs support at
this time right and beyond that there's
also this other another phrase that's a
marriage among there's a new poor right
so there's new categories of people who
are suffering at this time where they're
likely has been taken away because of
the social distancing and they're they
don't fall under the existing
pre-existing social benefit transfer
systems so now the question is how do
you actually like identify who needs
support and how do you send money to
them quickly because regardless of what
decision we make around social
distancing and lockdowns
right it's clear everybody agrees I mean
you'd send money quickly right so here
let me maybe share a little bit with you
again with with slides on what are the
inputs that are that are required and
I'm going to draw your attention to the
to the block here on the left and then
the block here at the bottom right so so
here's the trick
that we have to use so they're basically
the bondage government and now we're
working the Nigerian government on the
same problem all right you need to send
money you need to identify who the poor
are right and that's a difficult
difficult so the trick of using is you
know there were as I as I mentioned
earlier there were these samples of
people who you know the
then I know the statistical
representativeness that I have been
tracking right so I had baseline data on
them
based on say in-person surveys with them
for other projects that not that have
nothing to do with co-ed right from last
year okay so I've tracked them over time
okay that's one and second you know the
problem is that for it you know I only
have date such data on about 15,000 such
people right but when I do have it I
have great data so I've kind of the
ground truth on who's who's poor and
who's not who needs to be targeted whose
mom how did the 50 top right and you can
match that and now that I'm doing phone
surveys on them you can also get further
information for those 15,000 and so on
who is suffering the most right now
who's experienced the sharpest drops in
income so for example we observe that
migrant families the remittance
dependent families are suffering more
than others and the reason is those the
you know the migration pipeline that's
totally dried up and people can send
money it was the global crisis okay so
now you have this great ground truth
data for 15,000 the problem we have is
but how do I get that same kind of
information quickly for 150 million
people and the trick that we using in
partnership with Josh blumenstock that
was in the School of Information science
and UC Berkeley is given my data on the
ground truth right if I'm Marge and from
the telecom service provider their
cellphone usage data right now it won't
surprise you to learn that you and I use
our cellphones somewhat differently than
poor people do so in terms of the
frequency of top ups in terms of the the
size of our network the frequency of our
calls our use of calls versus SMS right
how our friends who we're calling how
they use the network on there's a lot of
different categories and factors that
kind of represents our subtle patterns
in cell phone usage that differs between
poor and rich right so if you can train
a machine learning model to pick up
those subtle differences then what you
can do is get a predictive model like an
algorithm that's right okay if I use
patterns like this
this person has a higher likelihood of
being poor right and then you can send
an SMS to people right and ask them a
few questions in order to refine your
message further right so that's the way
that we use a combination of survey data
economics data machine learning modeling
the sort of computer science modeling
put it all together and send the
algorithm back over the cellphone
providers and they can quickly apply it
to the entire population their entire
subscriber base
I find this super fascinating because it
combines you know the boring micro world
with big data and that efficient
intelligence I think it's also the
future partly for profession but let me
tell you the kind of the funny almost an
epilogue to this which is yes I also
found exactly this super fascinating
we'd like you I'm a researcher it's like
really things like oh let's put data
together this use machine learning this
is all great right but how are then
spending my time for the last three
weeks what we're working on this is
mostly about the politics of how those
go and implement because you can imagine
that there's gonna be a lot of
legitimate and other concerns with this
the one is that there are politicians I
mean while we have proponents of this
type of strategy in government who've
asked us to take on this task right
there's gonna be other people in
government who who would prefer to use
sort of list-based the traditional
approach right that we make lists and we
send out send out funds because that has
a different sort of political economy
calculus then then doing something in
that machine based right and on the
other hand we also have to worry about
things like you know what how do we
address the subset of the population
let's say 10% of the population they
don't have access to cellphones right
oh and is it thick and we know in
Bangladesh that men are much more likely
our cellphones and women are we gonna
inadvertently sort of exclude certain
groups from benefits right so we have to
worry about those things a lot and but
then to get this project working about
the politics right we also have to get
multiple cellphone providers to
cooperate with us and that itself is a
complicated task because they're in a
competitive environment with respect to
each other yeah since you mentioned
politics I want to conclude your
discussion with two questions that I'm
asking almost everyone who is kind
enough to contribute to our covered 19
series so the first is what could the
government can see the g7 or the g20 to
second equation but let's take them one
by one it's like what kind of business
do here have large multinationals
operating emerging markets in frontier
economies or even be large for great so
the on the first one on government
especially governments in in rich
countries right so this is the the virus
by its very nature travels right from
one person it's human to human
transmission right therefore solving the
problem in one location and leaving it
and not solving it or leaving other
countries to fend for themselves it's
not ultimately going to work right
because the virus is gonna get
re-imported right like no no country is
now moving towards sort of having herd
immunity and therefore when it gets
reinforced it
you have yet another outbreak in your
hands and therefore we really do need a
lot of global coordination in order to
address this properly the role of
multilateral institutions like the WTO
will remain really extremely important
and and and I think you know what's
happened in the world since like after
World War Two there was this wide
recognition for the importance of global
coordination and many such institutions
got built in many different sectors like
World Bank IMF but also the imaginations
and and many other multilateral bodies
as you know now somehow for the last you
know 50 to 70 years I guess we've slowly
forgotten the importance of the global
coordination and around the world you
see sort of nationalist sentiments
emerging in the United States in the
United Kingdom in Brazil in Hungary in
India in China and you really have to
like I think the world needs to be set
right and think hard about when we have
global challenges what are the right
institutions and right sort of
coordination bodies that allows us to
address those challenges now on the
business side of course you know that's
easy answer would be business things to
invest in people right but I think the
what I've learned over the past few
weeks you know and working on the
coronavirus response in Bangladesh and
then in some other in a few other
countries is you know some unique ways
in which
and some unique comparative advantages
of businesses unique types of data and I
just gave you an example of how cell
phone service providers right they have
access to information that nobody else
has including the government and the
reason is that even researchers don't
have that we're government and the
reason is that there's one you know
technology that basically everybody
carries in their pockets and that sort
of collects helps you collect a lot of
information similarly when we move to
the stage of Beyond relief targeting of
actually sending money over again
business can play an important role
there like there is like in Kenya in
Bangladesh there's now mobile money
providers they've replaced the
traditional sort of brick-and-mortar
banks because those you know that
particular method of providing financial
services was a very cost effective right
so there are many ways in which business
can contribute and it's important that
business and government and researchers
get together and figure out how to
coordinate and collaborate I like to
keep this award coordination and
cooperation
so with this mystique thank you very
much for taking the time doing all this
fascinating work in getting some minutes
to talk to us we look forward reading
some of your very exciting work thank
you very much very much
[Music]
you
you

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### Affordable healthcare in developing countries during COVID-19 | COVID-19 Series | LBS
URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TLApt99kZ5o

Transcrição não disponível

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